Acend vs Phantom — CounterQuant

T2 BO3 CS2 2026-06-07

Acend

1 : 2

Phantom wins

Phantom Winner

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-ORACLE v1 · Primary Prediction

Phantom 55% (prob 0.550)

Correct

Acend Phantom

45% 55%

Why — Top Feature Drivers

econ defuse rate diff -0.207 Schedule strength +0.118 Map-pool Elo +0.118

Shadow bet: 3.6u @ 1.843 → 3.0u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	Acend	vs	Phantom	Edge
anubis	86% (6/7)		33% (3/9)	+53pp
nuke	17% (1/6)		55% (33/60)	-38pp
inferno	71% (15/21)		40% (2/5)	+31pp
ancient	52% (16/31)		44% (14/32)	+8pp
overpass	36% (10/28)		44% (12/27)	-8pp
mirage	54% (19/35)		47% (20/43)	+7pp
dust2	47% (16/34)		46% (18/39)	+1pp
vertigo	—	·	—

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

Acend bans

nuke 17% WR

overpass 36% WR

Phantom bans

anubis 33% WR

inferno 40% WR

Acend pick

mirage

53% — Acend favored

Decider

ancient

54% Acend

Decider

vertigo

Phantom pick

dust2

49% — Phantom favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

anubis

72%

28%

Acend

nuke

24%

76%

Phantom

inferno

64%

36%

Acend

ancient

54%

46%

even

overpass

45%

55%

Phantom

mirage

53%

47%

even

dust2

51%

49%

even

Acend on left · Phantom on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Acend
MVP h4rn AWP	48	43	11	33%	89.0	69.5%	1.19	7.9
KalubeR RIFLER	51	45	20	47%	84.6	68.3%	1.18	7.2
Skrimo RIFLER	47	46	17	62%	87.5	72.1%	1.16	6.8
REDSTAR RIFLER	51	52	14	47%	76.3	69.2%	1.08	7.1
SPELLAN ENTRY	35	53	18	37%	73.3	62.3%	0.81	6.2
Phantom WIN
MVP Kylar RIFLER	53	42	15	66%	94.4	71.4%	1.28	6.3
KEiiiii	51	49	20	33%	86.1	69.8%	1.16	—
TMBRO	50	49	23	54%	94.1	66.1%	1.16	—
ayanokojii	45	46	10	38%	79.9	54.8%	0.97	—
-Kunai	42	48	13	55%	72.0	61.9%	0.94	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Acend WIN
Skrimo	19	15	8	47%	104.6	85.0%	1.48	6.8
KalubeR-	20	13	6	50%	88.1	81.8%	1.44	7.2
REDS7AR	22	15	4	32%	74.1	73.9%	1.34	7.1
Av3pech1ll	17	14	6	24%	87.6	75.0%	1.28	7.9
SPELLAN	12	17	8	42%	65.1	75.0%	0.92	6.2
Phantom
Kylar	21	18	5	67%	112.3	81.0%	1.44	6.3
KEiiiii	14	16	8	29%	77.5	70.0%	1.04	—
ayanokojii	17	17	0	41%	74.8	59.1%	0.99	—
-Kunai	11	18	6	45%	56.3	61.9%	0.72	—
TMBRO	8	18	6	25%	48.1	52.4%	0.50	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Acend
REDS7AR	13	18	3	69%	75.9	68.4%	0.91	7.1
Av3pech1ll	10	13	3	40%	74.1	64.7%	0.89	7.9
Skrimo	11	15	6	64%	71.8	60.0%	0.84	6.8
KalubeR-	10	15	4	60%	73.8	50.0%	0.72	7.2
SPELLAN	10	17	5	30%	70.3	47.4%	0.64	6.2
Phantom WIN
TMBRO	22	10	6	59%	130.2	83.3%	1.88	—
-Kunai	18	10	4	72%	102.7	73.7%	1.49	—
Kylar	12	10	4	50%	83.4	72.2%	1.16	6.3
KEiiiii	17	16	7	24%	83.5	66.7%	1.14	—
ayanokojii	14	13	5	29%	79.4	57.9%	1.04	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Acend
Av3pech1ll	21	16	2	38%	102.0	68.2%	1.33	7.9
KalubeR-	21	17	10	38%	89.6	69.6%	1.30	7.2
Skrimo	17	16	3	76%	86.2	71.4%	1.17	6.8
REDS7AR	16	19	7	50%	78.7	65.2%	0.98	7.1
SPELLAN	13	19	5	38%	83.5	63.6%	0.87	6.2
Phantom WIN
KEiiiii	20	17	5	45%	96.4	72.7%	1.30	—
Kylar	20	14	6	75%	86.8	62.5%	1.23	6.3
TMBRO	20	21	11	60%	108.0	65.2%	1.20	—
ayanokojii	14	16	5	43%	85.6	47.6%	0.88	—
-Kunai	13	20	3	38%	61.0	52.2%	0.68	—

Teams

Players in this match

Kylar h4rn KalubeR KEiiiii Skrimo TMBRO REDSTAR ayanokojii -Kunai SPELLAN