Predictions Shadow Bets Models
paper · half-Kelly · all tiers
Bankroll
926.8u
P&L
-73.2u
ROI
-8.10%
Hit rate
53.6% 67/125
Open Position (27 pending bets)
At risk
168.5u
18.2% of bankroll
Available
758.3u
Model-expected P&L
4.5u
~16.0 of 27 expected to win
Projected bankroll
931.3u
if model probs hold
T1: -71.2u (21/38)
T2: 16.6u (22/41)
T3: -18.6u (24/46)
settled P&L by price source:
Elo-implied: -23.4u (64/118, -2.8% ROI)
Polymarket: -49.9u (3/7, -91.3% ROI)
Placed Tier Bet on (predicted winner) Stake Odds Model Edge Status P&L
Jun 09 22:36 T1 Spirit 3.7u 1.843 0.55 0.01 pending 0.0
Jun 09 22:36 T1 Monte 4.9u 1.802 0.56 0.01 pending 0.0
Jun 09 22:36 T1 FURIA 1.0u 1.399 0.62 -0.10 pending 0.0
Jun 09 22:36 T1 Falcons 1.0u 1.575 0.63 -0.01 pending 0.0
Jun 09 22:36 T1 FUT 5.0u 1.802 0.56 0.01 pending 0.0
Jun 09 22:36 T1 Legacy 3.7u 1.843 0.55 0.01 pending 0.0
Jun 09 22:36 T1 PARIVISION 1.0u 1.786 0.51 -0.05 pending 0.0
Jun 09 22:36 T1 BetBoom 5.0u 1.802 0.56 0.01 pending 0.0
Jun 09 16:15 T2 brazylijski luz 1.0u 1.957 0.51 0.00 pending 0.0
Jun 09 12:15 T3 Abyssal 11.6u 1.637 0.63 0.02 pending 0.0
Jun 08 21:30 T2 Ursa 9.9u 1.666 0.62 0.02 pending 0.0
Jun 08 21:30 T2 brazylijski luz 3.7u 1.843 0.55 0.01 pending 0.0
Jun 08 21:00 T3 B8 Academy 12.1u 1.420 0.74 0.04 pending 0.0
Jun 08 21:00 T3 Falcons Force 12.3u 1.595 0.65 0.02 pending 0.0
Jun 08 21:00 T2 G2 Ares 4.5u 1.802 0.56 0.01 pending 0.0
Jun 08 21:00 T2 KOLESIE 9.2u 1.666 0.62 0.02 pending 0.0
Jun 08 21:00 T3 INOX Division 4.6u 1.802 0.56 0.01 pending 0.0
Jun 08 21:00 T3 Atreides 4.6u 1.802 0.56 0.01 pending 0.0
Jun 08 21:00 T3 ARCRED 12.9u 1.566 0.66 0.02 pending 0.0
Jun 08 21:00 T2 GenOne 10.8u 1.637 0.63 0.02 won 6.9
Jun 08 21:00 T2 Oxuji 3.5u 1.843 0.55 0.01 lost -3.5
Jun 08 21:00 T3 RUSTEC 4.8u 1.802 0.56 0.01 lost -4.8
Jun 08 21:00 T2 RUSTEC 4.8u 1.802 0.56 0.01 lost -4.8
Jun 08 21:00 T3 AM 3.6u 1.843 0.55 0.01 lost -3.6
Jun 08 21:00 T2 INOX Division 18.8u 1.514 0.69 0.03 won 9.7
Jun 08 21:00 T3 CYBERSHOKE 1.0u 1.957 0.51 0.00 lost -1.0
Jun 08 20:30 T3 NEW VISION 9.9u 1.666 0.62 0.02 pending 0.0
Jun 08 20:00 T3 XI 5.0u 1.802 0.56 0.01 pending 0.0
Jun 08 20:00 T1 BIG 1.0u 1.957 0.51 0.00 lost -1.0
Jun 08 20:00 T1 Legacy 1.0u 1.957 0.51 0.00 won 1.0
Jun 08 20:00 T1 Monte 1.0u 1.957 0.51 0.00 won 1.0
Jun 08 11:00 T3 MARKandLARRY 3.6u 1.843 0.55 0.01 won 3.0
Jun 08 11:00 T3 Abyssal 1.0u 1.957 0.51 0.00 lost -1.0
Jun 08 10:30 T2 Virtus.pro 3.6u 1.843 0.55 0.01 pending 0.0
Jun 08 08:00 T2 GenOne 4.8u 1.802 0.56 0.01 pending 0.0
Jun 08 04:30 T3 Chicken Coop 13.2u 1.475 0.71 0.03 won 6.3
Jun 07 22:00 T1 Legacy 3.4u 1.843 0.55 0.01 won 2.9
Jun 07 22:00 T1 G2 3.3u 1.850 0.55 0.01 won 2.8
Jun 07 22:00 T1 BetBoom 3.4u 1.843 0.55 0.01 won 2.9
Jun 07 22:00 T1 TYLOO 1.0u 1.957 0.51 0.00 lost -1.0
Jun 07 22:00 T1 Astralis 1.0u 1.957 0.51 0.00 lost -1.0
Jun 07 22:00 T1 B8 16.3u 1.541 0.68 0.03 won 8.8
Jun 07 21:00 T2 NEW VISION 10.6u 1.637 0.63 0.02 lost -10.6
Jun 07 21:00 T2 GenOne 3.5u 1.843 0.55 0.01 won 2.9
Jun 07 21:00 T2 ex-Zero Tenacity 4.7u 1.802 0.56 0.01 lost -4.7
Jun 07 21:00 T2 HYPERSPIRIT 3.5u 1.843 0.55 0.01 lost -3.5
Jun 07 17:00 T2 WROTBERRY 3.5u 1.850 0.55 0.01 lost -3.5
Jun 07 14:30 T3 LPH 3.6u 1.843 0.55 0.01 won 3.0
Jun 07 13:00 T2 Betclic 14.7u 1.566 0.66 0.02 lost -14.7
Jun 07 13:00 T2 Phantom 3.6u 1.843 0.55 0.01 won 3.0
Jun 07 13:00 T2 SHISHKA 3.6u 1.843 0.55 0.01 won 3.0
Jun 07 10:30 T2 Young Ninjas 1.0u 1.770 0.56 -0.01 pending 0.0
Jun 07 09:00 T3 ZUFE 3.7u 1.843 0.55 0.01 lost -3.7
Jun 07 08:00 T2 RUSTEC 11.2u 1.637 0.63 0.02 pending 0.0
Jun 07 04:00 T3 Villainous 5.0u 1.802 0.56 0.01 won 4.0
Jun 06 20:45 T1 FUT 3.6u 1.843 0.55 0.01 won 3.0
Jun 06 20:45 T1 Spirit 1.0u 1.957 0.51 0.00 won 1.0
Jun 06 20:45 T1 B8 3.5u 1.850 0.55 0.01 won 3.0
Jun 06 20:45 T1 FlyQuest 18.9u 1.514 0.69 0.03 lost -18.9
Jun 06 20:45 T1 BetBoom 15.4u 1.566 0.66 0.02 won 8.7
Jun 06 20:45 T1 BIG 5.0u 1.802 0.56 0.01 won 4.0
Jun 06 20:45 T1 Legacy 5.1u 1.802 0.56 0.01 lost -5.1
Jun 06 20:45 T1 TYLOO 5.1u 1.802 0.56 0.01 won 4.1
Jun 06 20:15 T2 BIG Academy 5.1u 1.802 0.56 0.01 lost -5.1
Jun 06 19:15 T3 ex-RUBY 11.0u 1.637 0.63 0.02 won 7.0
Jun 06 19:15 T3 RUSTEC 3.6u 1.843 0.55 0.01 won 3.0
Jun 06 19:15 T3 Nuclear TigeRES 1.0u 1.957 0.51 0.00 won 1.0
Jun 06 19:15 T3 KOLESIE 9.9u 1.666 0.62 0.02 won 6.6
Jun 06 19:15 T3 INOX Division 3.7u 1.843 0.55 0.01 lost -3.7
Jun 06 19:15 T3 ARCRED 3.6u 1.850 0.55 0.01 lost -3.6
Jun 06 19:15 T3 Atreides 13.8u 1.541 0.68 0.03 lost -13.8
Jun 06 19:15 T3 SPARTA 10.2u 1.666 0.62 0.02 lost -10.2
Jun 06 18:15 T3 ROUNDS 1.0u 1.957 0.51 0.00 lost -1.0
Jun 06 16:15 T2 NEW VISION 11.6u 1.637 0.63 0.02 won 7.4
Jun 06 15:15 T1 Spirit 3.5u 1.850 0.55 0.01 won 3.0
Jun 06 15:15 T1 B8 1.0u 1.333 0.66 -0.09 lost -1.0
Jun 06 15:15 T1 FlyQuest 3.6u 1.843 0.55 0.01 lost -3.6
Jun 06 15:15 T1 BetBoom 46.6u 1.255 0.85 0.05 won 11.9
Jun 06 15:15 T1 BIG 17.9u 1.541 0.68 0.03 won 9.7
Jun 06 15:15 T1 G2 1.0u 1.212 0.70 -0.13 won 0.2
Jun 06 15:15 T2 Johnny Speeds 1.0u 1.957 0.51 0.00 lost -1.0
Jun 06 15:15 T1 TYLOO 3.9u 1.843 0.55 0.01 lost -3.9
Jun 06 15:15 T1 Astralis 1.0u 1.724 0.57 -0.01 lost -1.0
Jun 06 10:30 T2 Misa 4.0u 1.843 0.55 0.01 lost -4.0
Jun 06 08:00 T2 Oxuji 5.3u 1.802 0.56 0.01 won 4.3
Jun 05 21:15 T3 DONSTU 14.7u 1.514 0.69 0.03 won 7.5
Jun 05 20:45 T3 XI 9.6u 1.666 0.62 0.02 won 6.4
Jun 05 20:45 T3 Misa 13.3u 1.566 0.66 0.02 lost -13.3
Jun 05 20:45 T2 NEW VISION 3.6u 1.843 0.55 0.01 lost -3.6
Jun 05 20:45 T1 Legacy 28.0u 1.420 0.74 0.04 lost -28.0
Jun 05 20:45 T1 BetBoom 5.0u 1.802 0.56 0.01 lost -5.0
Jun 05 20:45 T1 BIG 3.7u 1.843 0.55 0.01 lost -3.7
Jun 05 20:45 T1 M80 48.6u 3.279 0.52 0.21 lost -48.6
Jun 05 20:45 T1 B8 4.0u 1.843 0.55 0.01 lost -4.0
Jun 05 20:45 T1 TYLOO 32.7u 1.406 0.75 0.04 won 13.3
Jun 05 20:45 T1 Astralis 4.0u 1.850 0.55 0.01 won 3.4
Jun 05 20:45 T1 9z 1.0u 1.802 0.54 -0.02 won 0.8
Jun 05 20:15 T2 BIG Academy 5.3u 1.802 0.56 0.01 lost -5.3
Jun 05 20:15 T2 GenOne 30.3u 1.406 0.75 0.04 won 12.3
Jun 05 19:15 T2 ex-RUBY 1.0u 1.957 0.51 0.00 lost -1.0
Jun 05 16:45 T2 1win 1.0u 1.562 0.54 -0.10 lost -1.0
Jun 05 13:15 T3 Chicken Coop 15.2u 1.595 0.65 0.02 won 9.0
Jun 05 13:15 T3 Club 333 4.0u 1.850 0.55 0.01 won 3.4
Jun 05 12:45 T3 Brahmas 4.0u 1.843 0.55 0.01 won 3.4
Jun 05 12:45 T3 LAG 15.2u 1.514 0.69 0.03 lost -15.2
Jun 04 21:30 T3 Nuclear TigeRES 1.2u 1.950 0.52 0.00 won 1.1
Jun 04 21:30 T3 TDK 15.0u 1.545 0.67 0.03 won 8.2
Jun 04 21:30 T3 ASTRAL 1.0u 1.965 0.51 0.00 lost -1.0
Jun 04 21:30 T3 INOX Division 5.9u 1.789 0.57 0.01 won 4.7
Jun 04 21:30 T3 RUSTEC 1.8u 1.927 0.52 0.00 lost -1.8
Jun 04 21:30 T3 SPARTA 1.2u 1.950 0.52 0.00 lost -1.2
Jun 04 21:30 T3 Ursa 4.4u 1.835 0.55 0.01 lost -4.4
Jun 04 21:30 T3 Atreides 1.0u 1.965 0.51 0.00 won 1.0
Jun 04 19:25 T2 Atreides 9.4u 1.691 0.61 0.02 lost -9.4
Jun 04 19:25 T2 100 Thieves 1.2u 1.950 0.52 0.00 won 1.1
Jun 04 19:25 T1 NRG 21.4u 1.499 0.70 0.03 lost -21.4
Jun 04 19:25 T1 Liquid 11.4u 1.656 0.62 0.02 lost -11.4
Jun 04 19:25 T2 ex-RUBY 5.8u 1.789 0.57 0.01 won 4.6
Jun 04 19:25 T1 TYLOO 9.1u 1.706 0.60 0.02 won 6.4
Jun 04 19:25 T2 1win 1.2u 1.950 0.52 0.00 won 1.2
Jun 04 19:25 T2 Johnny Speeds 1.0u 1.739 0.55 -0.02 won 0.7
Jun 04 18:37 T3 Rooster 12.0u 1.545 0.67 0.03 pending 0.0
Jun 04 18:37 T3 SemperFi 9.4u 1.656 0.62 0.02 pending 0.0
Jun 04 18:37 T2 INOX Division 12.6u 1.593 0.65 0.02 won 7.4
Jun 04 18:37 T3 Ground Zero 8.2u 1.691 0.61 0.02 won 5.7
Jun 04 18:37 T3 Abyssal 9.7u 1.656 0.62 0.02 won 6.4
Jun 04 18:37 T2 PsychoFace 1.0u 1.950 0.52 0.00 lost -1.0
Jun 04 18:37 T2 Virtus.pro 1.0u 1.950 0.52 0.00 won 1.0
Jun 04 18:37 T2 ENCE 8.4u 1.691 0.61 0.02 lost -8.4
Jun 04 18:37 T2 KOLESIE 1.0u 1.950 0.52 0.00 won 1.0
Jun 04 18:37 T2 RUSTEC 1.0u 1.950 0.52 0.00 lost -1.0
Jun 04 18:37 T2 G2 Ares 19.2u 1.499 0.70 0.03 won 9.6
Jun 04 18:37 T3 DONSTU 8.0u 1.706 0.60 0.02 won 5.7
Jun 04 18:37 T3 LFO 6 13.4u 1.356 0.78 0.04 lost -13.4
Jun 04 18:37 T3 VP.Prodigy 9.0u 1.691 0.61 0.02 lost -9.0
Jun 04 18:37 T3 Misa 8.3u 1.706 0.60 0.02 won 5.9
Jun 04 18:37 T3 Project 91 1.0u 1.965 0.51 0.00 lost -1.0
Jun 04 18:37 T3 bankaPEPSI 5.3u 1.791 0.57 0.01 lost -5.3
Jun 04 18:37 T3 Arch 5.4u 1.791 0.57 0.01 lost -5.4
Jun 04 18:37 T3 Banger Gang 1.0u 1.965 0.51 0.00 won 1.0
Jun 04 18:37 T2 BIG Academy 5.4u 1.789 0.57 0.01 won 4.3
Jun 04 18:37 T3 QUAZAR 1.1u 1.950 0.52 0.00 won 1.1
Jun 04 18:37 T3 ROUNDS 1.7u 1.927 0.52 0.00 won 1.6
Jun 04 18:37 T2 ex-Zero Tenacity 5.5u 1.789 0.57 0.01 won 4.3
Jun 04 18:37 T2 Leo 9.4u 1.691 0.61 0.02 won 6.5
Jun 04 18:37 T2 Oxuji 8.7u 1.706 0.60 0.02 lost -8.7
Jun 04 18:37 T2 Lavked 9.6u 1.691 0.61 0.02 won 6.6
Jun 04 18:37 T1 Liquid 1.2u 1.950 0.52 0.00 won 1.1
Jun 04 18:37 T2 ex-RUBY 16.2u 1.574 0.66 0.02 won 9.3
Jun 04 18:37 T1 NRG 5.8u 1.789 0.57 0.01 lost -5.8
Jun 04 18:37 T2 HEROIC Academy 5.8u 1.789 0.57 0.01 won 4.6
Jun 04 18:37 T3 KOLESIE 7.3u 1.752 0.58 0.01 lost -7.3