Round-by-round live win probability. AUC 0.9035.
About this Model
SPECTER is CounterQuant's live in-match predictor. Trained on 840,000+ CS2 rounds from pro-level demo data, SPECTER updates win probability after each round based on the current score, economy state, round momentum, and kill sequence. The 0.9035 AUC is measured on held-out matches, demonstrating that in-match state is highly predictive. SPECTER powers the live probability bar shown during active matches.
Top Feature Drivers
Current map score (rounds won each side)
Dollar advantage at round start
Win streak and recent round control
First kills and trade efficiency mid-round
Grenade economy burned this round
Feature importances reflect normalized split gain across the training set. Values are approximate — the model uses all features simultaneously.
How to Interpret
SPECTER probability updates after each round result is confirmed. A team at 60% SPECTER after round 5 has momentum — but early-round SPECTER values are volatile. By round 12+ (half-time), SPECTER is highly reliable. Large SPECTER swings (>15pp in one round) signal a critical economy or skill break.
Live Performance
Selector Role
Live prediction engine — activates when a match starts, updates every round.
Version History
Launch on 840k rounds; AUC 0.9035; overfit gap 0.0017