Predicts individual player output for upcoming matches.
About this Model
CIPHER predicts individual player performance metrics for upcoming matches: Rating, ADR, KAST, and Impact Score. Trained on 120,000+ player-map performances from V4 parsed demos, CIPHER uses each player's rolling stats (last 15 maps), opponent quality, map specialization, and team context to generate per-player projections. R²=0.307 on held-out data means CIPHER explains ~31% of individual performance variance — strong for a fundamentally noisy domain.
Top Feature Drivers
Recent HLTV-style rating trend
Average damage per round history
Player's historical performance on this specific map
Facing stronger opponents downgrades projected stats
Better teammates = slightly inflated individual numbers
Some players significantly better/worse on LAN
Feature importances reflect normalized split gain across the training set. Values are approximate — the model uses all features simultaneously.
How to Interpret
CIPHER projected Rating is a regression estimate, not a hard prediction. R²=0.307 means it captures about 31% of real performance variance — useful for identifying systematic over/underperformers but not precise enough for single-match confidence. Players projected >0.15 Rating above their opponent are meaningful edges. CIPHER is most reliable for stable rosters with 10+ map history.
Live Performance
Selector Role
Player intelligence — feeds player projections into team comparison and TITAN.
Version History
Launch; fixed opening_kill_rate source (demo_kill_events); R² 0.307