Lilmix vs NEW VISION — CounterQuant

T2 BO3 CS2 2026-06-07

Lilmix

0 : 2

NEW VISION wins

NEW VISION Winner

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-ORACLE v1 · Primary Prediction

NEW VISION 63% (prob 0.630)

Correct

Lilmix NEW VISION

37% 63%

Why — Top Feature Drivers

Map-pool Elo -0.425 Elo edge +0.177 Buy power -0.176

Shadow bet: 11.6u @ 1.637 → 7.4u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	Lilmix	vs	NEW VISION	Edge
nuke	25% (1/4)		67% (2/3)	-42pp
mirage	34% (21/61)		0% (0/2)	+34pp
dust2	19% (6/32)		50% (2/4)	-31pp
ancient	31% (15/48)		43% (3/7)	-12pp
inferno	48% (16/33)		40% (2/5)	+8pp
anubis	41% (9/22)		40% (2/5)	+1pp
overpass	32% (9/28)	·	—
vertigo	50% (2/4)	·	—

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

Lilmix bans

dust2 19% WR

nuke 25% WR

NEW VISION bans

inferno 40% WR

anubis 40% WR

Lilmix pick

ancient

42% — Lilmix favored

Decider

overpass

Decider

vertigo

NEW VISION pick

mirage

0% — NEW VISION favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

nuke

27%

73%

NEW VISION

mirage

100%

Lilmix

dust2

28%

72%

NEW VISION

ancient

42%

58%

NEW VISION

inferno

55%

45%

Lilmix

anubis

51%

49%

even

Lilmix on left · NEW VISION on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Lilmix
MVP dezt	29	28	15	66%	101.4	77.8%	1.28	—
b0denmaster AWP	36	30	5	36%	94.3	70.0%	1.27	1.9
Wonder RIFLER	23	31	9	57%	76.0	62.5%	0.87	1.1
quix ENTRY	22	32	11	77%	63.9	61.0%	0.79	0.4
Jackinho ENTRY	25	35	9	48%	65.4	50.0%	0.73	0.5
NEW VISION WIN
MVP fen2k	36	27	12	67%	90.0	79.5%	1.39	—
wonimo	36	28	7	47%	97.5	71.8%	1.33	—
x1nk1n	35	30	8	74%	92.4	61.0%	1.17	—
hahanz0	30	31	12	67%	86.8	70.7%	1.11	—
w0l33n	25	30	12	44%	65.4	63.4%	0.90	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Lilmix
b0denmaster	23	17	4	39%	112.5	76.2%	1.51	1.9
dezt	14	15	7	50%	87.1	73.7%	1.13	—
quix	13	17	8	77%	66.0	72.7%	0.94	0.4
Wonder	10	15	5	50%	70.1	55.0%	0.75	1.1
Jackinho	9	18	4	56%	44.7	36.4%	0.41	0.5
NEW VISION WIN
fen2k	21	13	4	67%	80.9	86.4%	1.48	—
hahanz0	18	14	6	72%	92.1	76.2%	1.33	—
wonimo	17	15	3	47%	89.6	70.0%	1.21	—
x1nk1n	17	18	6	76%	92.8	59.1%	1.05	—
w0l33n	12	16	5	42%	58.7	59.1%	0.79	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Lilmix
dezt	15	13	8	80%	117.5	82.4%	1.44	—
Jackinho	16	17	5	44%	88.1	65.0%	1.08	0.5
b0denmaster	13	13	1	31%	74.2	63.2%	0.99	1.9
Wonder	13	16	4	62%	82.0	70.0%	0.99	1.1
quix	9	15	3	78%	61.5	47.4%	0.61	0.4
NEW VISION WIN
wonimo	19	13	4	47%	105.7	73.7%	1.46	—
x1nk1n	18	12	2	72%	92.0	63.2%	1.31	—
fen2k	15	14	8	67%	101.8	70.6%	1.27	—
w0l33n	13	14	7	46%	73.1	68.4%	1.03	—
hahanz0	12	17	6	58%	81.2	65.0%	0.89	—

Teams

Players in this match

fen2k wonimo dezt b0denmaster x1nk1n hahanz0 w0l33n Wonder quix Jackinho