aAa vs ex-Zero Tenacity

T2 BO3 CS2 2026-06-05

aAa

0 : 2

ex-Zero Tenacity wins

ex-Zero Tenacity Winner

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-APEX v3 · Primary Prediction

ex-Zero Tenacity 57% (prob 0.569)

Correct

aAa ex-Zero Tenacity

43% 57%

Shadow bet: 5.5u @ 1.789 → 4.3u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	aAa	vs	ex-Zero Tenacity	Edge
inferno	14% (1/7)		54% (19/35)	-40pp
overpass	0% (0/2)		30% (6/20)	-30pp
anubis	67% (2/3)		43% (6/14)	+24pp
nuke	31% (4/13)		50% (21/42)	-19pp
dust2	38% (5/13)		48% (21/44)	-10pp
mirage	—	·	35% (11/31)
ancient	40% (4/10)	·	—
vertigo	—	·	—

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

aAa bans

inferno 14% WR

nuke 31% WR

ex-Zero Tenacity bans

anubis 43% WR

dust2 48% WR

aAa pick

mirage

Decider

overpass

100% ex-Zero Tenacity

Decider

vertigo

ex-Zero Tenacity pick

ancient

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

inferno

21%

79%

ex-Zero Tenacity

overpass

100%

ex-Zero Tenacity

anubis

61%

39%

aAa

nuke

38%

62%

ex-Zero Tenacity

dust2

44%

56%

ex-Zero Tenacity

aAa on left · ex-Zero Tenacity on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
aAa
MVP Rain	27	25	4	52%	84.4	73.5%	1.18	—
Saax	21	31	4	48%	66.0	52.8%	0.71	—
Asi0K	18	31	7	50%	52.8	55.3%	0.63	—
Tarkky RIFLER	20	34	6	55%	60.2	50.0%	0.61	4.3
SLIE9000	12	31	9	50%	44.0	47.1%	0.39	—
ex-Zero Tenacity WIN
MVP Cjoffo RIFLER	37	14	6	70%	100.6	82.9%	1.71	5.5
Dragon	37	25	10	46%	106.9	88.9%	1.60	—
aVN RIFLER	29	20	12	28%	78.4	77.4%	1.38	4.1
Kind0 RIFLER	30	23	9	60%	96.8	71.4%	1.31	5.2
brutmonster AWP	25	23	9	44%	81.6	66.7%	1.12	5.2

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
aAa
Rain	15	10	2	40%	87.2	77.8%	1.34	—
Saax	12	16	2	50%	77.1	50.0%	0.78	—
Tarkky	12	17	4	67%	73.3	52.6%	0.77	4.3
Asi0K	11	16	5	64%	62.1	52.4%	0.71	—
SLIE9000	5	14	4	60%	37.2	41.2%	0.32	—
ex-Zero Tenacity WIN
Cjoffo	22	7	1	77%	97.4	81.0%	1.70	5.5
Dragon	18	14	5	72%	106.8	84.2%	1.47	—
brutmonster	15	13	1	33%	87.1	55.6%	1.09	5.2
Kind0	12	13	4	58%	79.7	68.4%	1.02	5.2
aVN	10	12	4	20%	58.4	62.5%	0.87	4.1

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
aAa
Rain	12	15	2	67%	81.4	68.8%	0.99	—
Saax	9	15	2	44%	52.2	56.3%	0.64	—
Asi0K	7	15	2	29%	41.5	58.8%	0.52	—
SLIE9000	7	17	5	43%	50.8	52.9%	0.46	—
Tarkky	8	17	2	38%	45.6	47.1%	0.44	4.3
ex-Zero Tenacity WIN
aVN	19	8	8	32%	99.7	93.3%	1.93	4.1
Dragon	19	11	5	21%	107.1	94.1%	1.74	—
Cjoffo	15	7	5	60%	105.3	85.7%	1.72	5.5
Kind0	18	10	5	61%	117.1	75.0%	1.65	5.2
brutmonster	10	10	8	60%	74.9	80.0%	1.16	5.2

Teams

Players in this match

Cjoffo Dragon aVN Kind0 Rain brutmonster Saax Asi0K Tarkky SLIE9000