Leo vs Lilmix — CounterQuant

T2 BO3 CS2 2026-06-05

Leo Winner

2 : 0

Leo wins

Lilmix

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-APEX v3 · Primary Prediction

Leo 61% (prob 0.608)

Correct

Leo Lilmix

61% 39%

Shadow bet: 9.4u @ 1.691 → 6.5u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	Leo	vs	Lilmix	Edge
dust2	62% (48/78)		19% (6/32)	+43pp
ancient	59% (40/68)		31% (15/48)	+28pp
overpass	54% (7/13)		32% (9/28)	+22pp
mirage	48% (19/40)		34% (21/61)	+14pp
nuke	35% (9/26)		25% (1/4)	+10pp
inferno	45% (17/38)		48% (16/33)	-3pp
anubis	43% (15/35)		41% (9/22)	+2pp
vertigo	—	·	50% (2/4)

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

Leo bans

nuke 35% WR

anubis 43% WR

Lilmix bans

dust2 19% WR

ancient 31% WR

Leo pick

overpass

63% — Leo favored

Decider

mirage

59% Leo

Decider

vertigo

Lilmix pick

inferno

52% — Lilmix favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

dust2

77%

23%

Leo

ancient

66%

34%

Leo

overpass

63%

37%

Leo

mirage

59%

41%

Leo

nuke

58%

42%

Leo

inferno

48%

52%

even

anubis

51%

49%

even

Leo on left · Lilmix on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Leo WIN
MVP OneUn1que RIFLER	38	17	9	50%	125.8	84.4%	1.85	6.2
rendysky AWP	35	17	6	29%	113.0	84.4%	1.72	4.4
kL1o RIFLER	29	16	9	59%	95.7	84.4%	1.53	5.9
leen	21	21	16	57%	83.8	68.8%	1.10	—
amster RIFLER	15	17	6	53%	54.4	75.0%	0.92	5.9
Lilmix
MVP hns	20	30	7	45%	81.1	65.6%	0.86	—
walleN	15	22	4	60%	57.3	71.9%	0.82	—
Jackinho ENTRY	17	27	9	59%	76.5	62.5%	0.80	0.5
b0denmaster AWP	18	25	7	39%	84.5	50.0%	0.79	1.9
quix ENTRY	13	30	4	77%	49.0	43.8%	0.40	0.4

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Leo WIN
kL1o	18	8	5	67%	107.9	83.3%	1.67	5.9
rendysky	19	12	3	32%	104.2	83.3%	1.58	4.4
OneUn1que	14	13	7	57%	108.1	77.8%	1.30	6.2
leen	12	12	8	58%	71.3	61.1%	1.00	—
amster	10	11	2	50%	56.7	72.2%	0.94	5.9
Lilmix
hns	16	17	5	44%	114.6	83.3%	1.33	—
walleN	9	10	2	67%	57.5	77.8%	0.96	—
b0denmaster	10	13	4	40%	79.2	50.0%	0.80	1.9
Jackinho	9	15	6	56%	81.3	61.1%	0.79	0.5
quix	9	16	3	78%	64.3	55.6%	0.65	0.4

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Leo WIN
OneUn1que	24	4	2	46%	148.5	92.9%	2.56	6.2
rendysky	16	5	3	25%	124.3	85.7%	1.90	4.4
kL1o	11	8	4	45%	80.1	85.7%	1.35	5.9
leen	9	9	8	56%	99.9	78.6%	1.23	—
amster	5	6	4	60%	51.4	78.6%	0.91	5.9
Lilmix
Jackinho	8	12	3	63%	70.3	64.3%	0.81	0.5
b0denmaster	8	12	3	38%	91.2	50.0%	0.78	1.9
walleN	6	12	2	50%	57.1	64.3%	0.64	—
hns	4	13	2	50%	38.1	42.9%	0.26	—
quix	4	14	1	75%	29.4	28.6%	0.09	0.4

Teams

Players in this match

OneUn1que rendysky kL1o leen amster hns walleN Jackinho b0denmaster quix