Ursa vs RUSTEC — CounterQuant

T3 BO3 CS2 2026-06-08

Ursa

1 : 2

RUSTEC wins

RUSTEC Winner

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-ORACLE v1 · Primary Prediction

RUSTEC 55% (prob 0.550)

Correct

Ursa RUSTEC

45% 55%

Why — Top Feature Drivers

Elo edge -0.179 econ eco freq diff -0.107 Map-pool Elo +0.086

Shadow bet: 3.6u @ 1.843 → 3.0u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	Ursa	vs	RUSTEC	Edge
inferno	40% (12/30)		80% (4/5)	-40pp
ancient	0% (0/1)		38% (5/13)	-38pp
anubis	64% (7/11)		30% (3/10)	+34pp
overpass	48% (11/23)		73% (11/15)	-25pp
dust2	64% (43/67)		46% (13/28)	+18pp
mirage	46% (19/41)		40% (6/15)	+6pp
nuke	42% (22/53)		43% (9/21)	-1pp
vertigo	—	·	100% (1/1)

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

Ursa bans

inferno 40% WR

nuke 42% WR

RUSTEC bans

anubis 30% WR

mirage 40% WR

Ursa pick

dust2

58% — Ursa favored

Decider

ancient

100% RUSTEC

Decider

vertigo

RUSTEC pick

overpass

60% — RUSTEC favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

inferno

33%

67%

RUSTEC

ancient

100%

RUSTEC

anubis

68%

32%

Ursa

overpass

40%

60%

RUSTEC

dust2

58%

42%

Ursa

mirage

53%

47%

even

nuke

49%

51%

even

Ursa on left · RUSTEC on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Ursa
MVP Krad	62	54	17	60%	103.1	70.0%	1.28	—
karnez RIFLER	60	62	8	80%	85.1	60.8%	1.04	6.1
Alv	46	47	17	33%	75.9	62.5%	1.02	—
4X1s	45	53	13	60%	72.4	60.6%	0.90	—
Salazar	43	51	17	53%	73.5	56.3%	0.87	—
RUSTEC WIN
MVP youka AWP	66	49	10	23%	101.9	67.7%	1.35	6.4
anttzz RIFLER	59	53	12	71%	82.0	61.6%	1.10	4.6
jakekeS	54	56	15	63%	81.1	64.0%	1.03	—
supra RIFLER	46	53	14	61%	81.5	61.8%	0.96	5.3
Brilliance	44	49	22	61%	62.9	63.9%	0.93	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Ursa
Krad	15	13	4	87%	108.2	70.6%	1.30	—
Salazar	16	13	5	50%	84.9	71.4%	1.21	—
Alv	13	14	5	69%	92.3	52.9%	1.00	—
4X1s	9	17	4	56%	57.2	50.0%	0.57	—
karnez	5	17	5	80%	37.8	42.1%	0.27	6.1
RUSTEC WIN
supra	16	13	5	63%	119.7	82.4%	1.48	5.3
anttzz	20	13	2	70%	85.6	75.0%	1.41	4.6
Brilliance	17	10	1	47%	70.6	75.0%	1.31	—
jakekeS	13	12	8	54%	67.3	77.3%	1.10	—
youka	11	13	4	18%	78.2	70.6%	1.00	6.4

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Ursa
Krad	19	16	5	53%	98.3	76.2%	1.33	—
karnez	19	17	2	79%	89.2	66.7%	1.19	6.1
4X1s	12	13	5	75%	79.8	66.7%	1.02	—
Alv	12	17	3	17%	60.4	63.2%	0.80	—
Salazar	10	15	5	70%	65.4	50.0%	0.69	—
RUSTEC WIN
youka	25	13	1	32%	134.2	73.7%	1.81	6.4
jakekeS	21	15	2	71%	107.5	60.0%	1.36	—
anttzz	17	14	3	82%	81.7	60.0%	1.14	4.6
Brilliance	8	15	8	75%	44.6	63.2%	0.65	—
supra	8	17	5	63%	57.0	47.4%	0.50	5.3

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Ursa WIN
karnez	36	28	1	81%	109.0	67.7%	1.38	6.1
Krad	28	25	8	50%	103.6	65.6%	1.24	—
Alv	21	16	9	19%	76.5	67.9%	1.18	—
4X1s	24	23	4	54%	77.5	63.6%	1.04	—
Salazar	17	23	7	47%	71.0	50.0%	0.76	—
RUSTEC
youka	30	23	5	17%	95.3	62.5%	1.27	6.4
supra	22	23	4	59%	75.8	59.4%	0.96	5.3
anttzz	22	26	7	64%	80.0	54.6%	0.89	4.6
Brilliance	19	24	13	68%	68.8	57.6%	0.85	—
jakekeS	20	29	5	60%	74.2	57.6%	0.79	—

Teams

Players in this match

youka Krad anttzz karnez jakekeS Alv supra Brilliance 4X1s Salazar