SPARTA vs AM — CounterQuant

T3 BO3 CS2 2026-06-07

SPARTA

1 : 2

AM wins

AM Winner

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-ORACLE v1 · Primary Prediction

SPARTA 62% (prob 0.618)

Wrong

SPARTA AM

62% 38%

Why — Top Feature Drivers

Elo edge +0.136 Buy power +0.128 CT-side econ +0.114

Shadow bet: 10.2u @ 1.666 → -10.2u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	SPARTA	vs	AM	Edge
inferno	25% (2/8)		50% (10/20)	-25pp
ancient	35% (25/72)		55% (22/40)	-20pp
anubis	50% (3/6)		33% (2/6)	+17pp
overpass	53% (20/38)		70% (16/23)	-17pp
nuke	50% (36/72)		37% (11/30)	+13pp
dust2	44% (24/55)		55% (22/40)	-11pp
mirage	54% (43/80)		52% (21/40)	+2pp
vertigo	—	·	—

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

SPARTA bans

inferno 25% WR

ancient 35% WR

AM bans

anubis 33% WR

nuke 37% WR

SPARTA pick

mirage

51% — SPARTA favored

Decider

dust2

56% AM

Decider

vertigo

AM pick

overpass

57% — AM favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

inferno

33%

67%

ancient

39%

61%

anubis

60%

40%

SPARTA

overpass

43%

57%

nuke

57%

43%

SPARTA

dust2

44%

56%

mirage

51%

49%

even

SPARTA on left · AM on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
SPARTA
MVP El1an AWP	41	34	17	39%	93.9	72.0%	1.27	7.6
k4nfuz RIFLER	35	42	10	66%	86.0	66.0%	1.00	7.3
TRAVIS RIFLER	37	41	9	59%	78.9	59.6%	0.96	7.0
Djon8 RIFLER	39	42	5	67%	81.8	54.9%	0.96	7.6
NickelBack ENTRY	33	38	12	52%	75.8	56.3%	0.91	6.4
AM WIN
MVP k1to ENTRY	58	39	10	52%	107.9	65.4%	1.47	5.5
Altekz RIFLER	41	35	12	59%	88.6	67.3%	1.18	6.5
L00m1 AWP	39	38	10	38%	81.2	66.0%	1.09	6.8
myltsi RIFLER	35	40	12	49%	88.9	61.2%	1.00	6.5
Marix RIFLER	23	35	10	61%	64.1	59.1%	0.75	6.9

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
SPARTA
El1an	12	15	8	50%	110.1	75.0%	1.16	7.6
k4nfuz	10	15	4	70%	82.9	62.5%	0.85	7.3
NickelBack	10	15	3	20%	55.2	43.8%	0.62	6.4
Djon8	8	16	0	63%	53.8	31.3%	0.36	7.6
TRAVIS	5	16	3	80%	43.1	37.5%	0.23	7.0
AM WIN
k1to	23	9	8	43%	136.1	86.7%	2.19	5.5
Altekz	22	10	3	55%	129.8	86.7%	2.04	6.5
myltsi	17	8	4	35%	143.0	92.3%	2.03	6.5
L00m1	9	11	6	11%	73.6	73.3%	1.00	6.8
Marix	6	8	6	50%	68.0	69.2%	0.90	6.9

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
SPARTA WIN
NickelBack	18	8	4	61%	113.0	75.0%	1.70	6.4
TRAVIS	21	11	3	57%	108.7	79.0%	1.65	7.0
Djon8	17	11	2	59%	110.3	68.8%	1.48	7.6
k4nfuz	12	13	4	67%	93.9	70.6%	1.10	7.3
El1an	11	10	6	36%	68.8	62.5%	1.04	7.6
AM
k1to	17	15	0	47%	93.6	55.6%	1.14	5.5
myltsi	10	17	5	70%	75.5	52.6%	0.69	6.5
L00m1	11	17	2	27%	65.3	47.4%	0.65	6.8
Marix	8	14	0	75%	53.2	40.0%	0.49	6.9
Altekz	6	16	3	67%	51.4	42.1%	0.37	6.5

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
SPARTA
El1an	18	9	3	33%	101.8	77.8%	1.57	7.6
k4nfuz	13	14	2	62%	80.9	64.7%	1.03	7.3
Djon8	14	15	3	79%	81.6	63.2%	1.02	7.6
TRAVIS	11	14	3	55%	79.4	58.8%	0.88	7.0
NickelBack	5	15	5	80%	59.3	50.0%	0.42	6.4
AM WIN
L00m1	19	10	2	58%	107.3	81.3%	1.70	6.8
Altekz	13	9	6	62%	93.6	77.8%	1.32	6.5
k1to	18	15	2	67%	99.2	57.9%	1.21	5.5
Marix	9	13	4	56%	71.2	68.8%	0.87	6.9
myltsi	8	15	3	50%	62.6	47.1%	0.56	6.5

Teams

SPARTA

View team →

Players in this match

k1to El1an Altekz L00m1 myltsi k4nfuz TRAVIS Djon8 NickelBack Marix