ARCRED vs ASTRAL — CounterQuant

T3 BO3 CS2 2026-06-06

ARCRED Winner

2 : 1

ARCRED wins

ASTRAL

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-APEX v3 · Primary Prediction

ASTRAL 51% (prob 0.510)

Wrong

ARCRED ASTRAL

49% 51%

Shadow bet: 1.0u @ 1.965 → -1.0u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	ARCRED	vs	ASTRAL	Edge
dust2	60% (32/53)		46% (17/37)	+14pp
ancient	38% (42/110)		50% (20/40)	-12pp
inferno	47% (40/86)		38% (9/24)	+9pp
nuke	46% (34/74)		38% (14/37)	+8pp
anubis	58% (43/74)		50% (12/24)	+8pp
mirage	53% (70/133)		50% (12/24)	+3pp
overpass	40% (12/30)	·	—
vertigo	56% (9/16)	·	—

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

ARCRED bans

ancient 38% WR

nuke 46% WR

ASTRAL bans

inferno 38% WR

dust2 46% WR

ARCRED pick

anubis

54% — ARCRED favored

Decider

overpass

Decider

vertigo

ASTRAL pick

mirage

49% — ASTRAL favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

dust2

57%

43%

ARCRED

ancient

43%

57%

ASTRAL

inferno

55%

45%

ARCRED

nuke

55%

45%

ARCRED

anubis

54%

46%

even

mirage

51%

49%

even

ARCRED on left · ASTRAL on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
ARCRED WIN
MVP synyx RIFLER	60	34	18	55%	102.7	82.5%	1.62	6.9
DSSj AWP	47	30	12	28%	98.2	72.0%	1.42	7.1
Ryujin RIFLER	42	30	15	55%	91.7	77.6%	1.37	6.9
Raijin ENTRY	43	34	14	58%	74.8	66.7%	1.15	6.8
Get_Jeka RIFLER	34	36	11	50%	86.9	71.1%	1.11	6.8
ASTRAL
MVP ray5ive	46	45	10	63%	84.1	65.5%	1.11	—
gxx- AWP	33	44	9	36%	69.9	58.2%	0.82	6.1
Neqy	33	47	18	58%	65.3	53.6%	0.76	—
swiz RIFLER	31	45	13	48%	62.2	49.1%	0.69	5.7
meowpop	21	46	10	57%	60.6	39.6%	0.44	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
ARCRED WIN
Raijin	20	6	3	55%	115.6	87.5%	1.97	6.8
synyx	18	8	8	56%	116.2	93.8%	1.87	6.9
Ryujin	14	6	7	43%	112.7	92.3%	1.83	6.9
DSSj	17	6	1	29%	100.8	73.3%	1.69	7.1
Get_Jeka	10	9	5	40%	92.6	83.3%	1.33	6.8
ASTRAL
gxx-	8	15	3	38%	72.3	56.3%	0.66	6.1
Neqy	8	16	7	63%	67.1	56.3%	0.63	—
ray5ive	9	16	2	78%	58.5	47.1%	0.56	—
swiz	5	15	2	40%	43.5	25.0%	0.17	5.7
meowpop	3	16	1	0%	35.4	18.8%	0.00	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
ARCRED WIN
synyx	23	10	2	70%	122.8	82.4%	1.92	6.9
Get_Jeka	16	10	3	69%	113.6	87.5%	1.61	6.8
DSSj	12	7	5	50%	93.6	78.6%	1.45	7.1
Ryujin	12	8	1	58%	87.6	85.7%	1.41	6.9
Raijin	6	11	8	67%	38.3	64.7%	0.66	6.8
ASTRAL
ray5ive	13	14	4	46%	81.7	68.8%	1.09	—
swiz	10	14	5	60%	64.9	56.3%	0.79	5.7
Neqy	9	15	5	44%	69.7	52.9%	0.69	—
meowpop	7	13	4	57%	81.0	50.0%	0.65	—
gxx-	6	12	1	17%	46.2	50.0%	0.50	6.1

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
ARCRED
synyx	19	16	8	37%	79.5	75.0%	1.23	6.9
DSSj	18	17	6	11%	99.5	66.7%	1.20	7.1
Ryujin	16	16	7	63%	81.8	63.6%	1.06	6.9
Raijin	17	17	3	59%	73.5	54.2%	0.94	6.8
Get_Jeka	8	17	3	25%	57.9	47.1%	0.48	6.8
ASTRAL WIN
ray5ive	24	15	4	67%	105.6	77.3%	1.56	—
gxx-	19	17	5	42%	81.7	64.0%	1.10	6.1
swiz	16	16	6	44%	73.4	60.9%	1.00	5.7
Neqy	16	16	6	63%	60.9	52.2%	0.89	—
meowpop	11	17	5	73%	65.7	47.8%	0.66	—

Teams

Players in this match

synyx DSSj Ryujin Raijin ray5ive Get_Jeka gxx- Neqy swiz meowpop