ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC — CounterQuant

T3 BO3 CS2 2026-06-05

ex-RUBY Winner

2 : 1

ex-RUBY wins

RUSTEC

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-APEX v3 · Primary Prediction

RUSTEC 52% (prob 0.522)

Wrong

ex-RUBY RUSTEC

48% 52%

Shadow bet: 1.8u @ 1.927 → -1.8u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	ex-RUBY	vs	RUSTEC	Edge
inferno	0% (0/1)		80% (4/5)	-80pp
dust2	66% (37/56)		46% (13/28)	+20pp
anubis	50% (6/12)		30% (3/10)	+20pp
nuke	62% (28/45)		43% (9/21)	+19pp
ancient	55% (22/40)		38% (5/13)	+17pp
mirage	55% (29/53)		40% (6/15)	+15pp
overpass	63% (17/27)		73% (11/15)	-10pp
vertigo	—	·	100% (1/1)

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

ex-RUBY bans

anubis 50% WR

mirage 55% WR

RUSTEC bans

ancient 38% WR

nuke 43% WR

ex-RUBY pick

dust2

59% — ex-RUBY favored

Decider

inferno

100% RUSTEC

Decider

vertigo

RUSTEC pick

overpass

54% — RUSTEC favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

inferno

100%

RUSTEC

dust2

59%

41%

ex-RUBY

anubis

62%

38%

ex-RUBY

nuke

59%

41%

ex-RUBY

ancient

59%

41%

ex-RUBY

mirage

58%

42%

ex-RUBY

overpass

46%

54%

even

ex-RUBY on left · RUSTEC on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
ex-RUBY WIN
MVP sh1nejezzz RIFLER	64	55	18	66%	92.5	69.7%	1.23	7.8
relaxxie	70	64	14	56%	95.4	63.3%	1.18	—
YumsaN AWP	57	53	26	32%	83.9	64.5%	1.11	7.9
H4SAN4TOR ENTRY	55	60	19	55%	81.2	67.5%	1.04	7.3
robo	49	58	18	49%	66.6	59.8%	0.87	—
RUSTEC
MVP Brilliance	68	60	26	63%	96.1	70.9%	1.26	—
youka AWP	60	55	21	20%	88.7	70.7%	1.19	6.4
jakekeS	62	58	12	58%	88.7	60.3%	1.09	—
supra RIFLER	52	61	19	54%	71.9	60.3%	0.92	5.3
anttzz RIFLER	44	59	15	55%	71.2	60.6%	0.85	4.6

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
ex-RUBY WIN
relaxxie	35	27	6	63%	104.4	66.7%	1.34	—
H4SAN4TOR	30	29	12	53%	99.0	73.0%	1.23	7.3
YumsaN	28	27	11	36%	91.5	67.6%	1.14	7.9
robo	28	29	9	54%	77.2	63.4%	1.01	—
sh1nejezzz	26	29	11	62%	73.8	65.8%	0.99	7.8
RUSTEC
Brilliance	34	29	13	56%	98.1	76.3%	1.33	—
youka	31	29	12	10%	84.8	68.4%	1.16	6.4
jakekeS	29	29	3	59%	83.4	51.3%	0.96	—
anttzz	23	30	10	57%	79.8	63.9%	0.92	4.6
supra	23	30	9	43%	64.2	54.1%	0.79	5.3

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
ex-RUBY
sh1nejezzz	16	13	2	69%	105.8	58.8%	1.25	7.8
YumsaN	15	14	5	40%	69.4	60.0%	1.02	7.9
robo	11	15	5	36%	69.1	63.2%	0.85	—
relaxxie	14	20	1	71%	78.9	40.0%	0.68	—
H4SAN4TOR	9	17	5	56%	64.3	52.6%	0.61	7.3
RUSTEC WIN
supra	21	13	3	62%	112.7	80.0%	1.58	5.3
youka	17	12	6	41%	109.7	88.9%	1.56	6.4
Brilliance	17	14	6	71%	106.2	73.7%	1.35	—
jakekeS	13	14	5	62%	78.7	72.2%	1.08	—
anttzz	12	13	1	50%	71.4	50.0%	0.88	4.6

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
ex-RUBY WIN
sh1nejezzz	22	13	5	68%	115.4	85.7%	1.66	7.8
relaxxie	21	17	7	33%	95.6	78.3%	1.36	—
YumsaN	14	12	10	14%	84.2	63.2%	1.15	7.9
H4SAN4TOR	16	14	2	56%	65.1	71.4%	1.10	7.3
robo	10	14	4	50%	44.5	50.0%	0.64	—
RUSTEC
jakekeS	20	15	4	55%	107.1	66.7%	1.35	—
Brilliance	17	17	7	71%	83.9	59.1%	1.05	—
youka	12	14	3	17%	76.3	57.9%	0.90	6.4
anttzz	9	16	4	56%	54.6	63.2%	0.68	4.6
supra	8	18	7	63%	46.7	52.4%	0.50	5.3

Teams

Players in this match

Brilliance sh1nejezzz youka relaxxie YumsaN jakekeS H4SAN4TOR supra robo anttzz