Acend vs Ursa — CounterQuant

T3 BO3 CS2 2026-06-05

Acend Winner

2 : 0

Acend wins

Ursa

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-APEX v3 · Primary Prediction

Ursa 55% (prob 0.553)

Wrong

Acend Ursa

45% 55%

Shadow bet: 4.4u @ 1.835 → -4.4u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	Acend	vs	Ursa	Edge
ancient	52% (16/31)		0% (0/1)	+52pp
inferno	71% (15/21)		40% (12/30)	+31pp
nuke	17% (1/6)		42% (22/53)	-25pp
anubis	86% (6/7)		64% (7/11)	+22pp
dust2	47% (16/34)		64% (43/67)	-17pp
overpass	36% (10/28)		48% (11/23)	-12pp
mirage	54% (19/35)		46% (19/41)	+8pp
vertigo	—	·	—

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

Acend bans

nuke 17% WR

overpass 36% WR

Ursa bans

inferno 40% WR

mirage 46% WR

Acend pick

anubis

57% — Acend favored

Decider

ancient

100% Acend

Decider

vertigo

Ursa pick

dust2

58% — Ursa favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

ancient

100%

Acend

inferno

64%

36%

Acend

nuke

29%

71%

Ursa

anubis

57%

43%

Acend

dust2

42%

58%

Ursa

overpass

43%

57%

Ursa

mirage

54%

46%

even

Acend on left · Ursa on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Acend WIN
MVP REDSTAR RIFLER	42	24	8	62%	97.7	76.2%	1.51	7.1
Skrimo RIFLER	34	35	11	56%	92.1	69.8%	1.14	6.8
SPELLAN ENTRY	34	33	12	53%	76.7	70.5%	1.12	6.2
KalubeR RIFLER	28	28	13	54%	83.4	67.6%	1.11	7.2
h4rn AWP	32	23	7	25%	73.9	55.8%	1.08	7.9
Ursa
MVP Alv	46	29	10	37%	104.8	77.8%	1.53	—
4X1s	30	34	11	47%	83.4	51.2%	0.92	—
MRcreed	25	34	8	60%	64.2	57.8%	0.78	—
karnez RIFLER	20	35	16	70%	67.1	59.5%	0.72	6.1
Salazar	18	34	8	72%	60.3	42.1%	0.52	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Acend WIN
REDSTAR	22	11	4	77%	103.3	71.4%	1.56	7.1
KalubeR	18	18	6	39%	88.5	61.9%	1.11	7.2
SPELLAN	16	19	6	44%	70.9	72.7%	1.02	6.2
Skrimo	14	20	9	64%	87.4	77.3%	1.01	6.8
h4rn	14	12	4	21%	66.1	54.6%	0.95	7.9
Ursa
Alv	30	13	4	37%	126.6	87.0%	1.95	—
MRcreed	15	17	4	67%	73.9	68.2%	0.99	—
karnez	13	17	8	77%	82.1	66.7%	0.95	6.1
4X1s	10	17	6	40%	52.7	47.6%	0.59	—
Salazar	9	17	5	78%	57.0	50.0%	0.57	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Acend WIN
REDSTAR	20	13	4	45%	92.1	81.0%	1.46	7.1
Skrimo	20	15	2	50%	97.0	61.9%	1.28	6.8
SPELLAN	18	14	6	61%	82.5	68.2%	1.22	6.2
h4rn	18	11	3	28%	82.1	57.1%	1.22	7.9
KalubeR	10	10	7	80%	76.7	75.0%	1.11	7.2
Ursa
4X1s	20	17	5	50%	115.7	55.0%	1.27	—
Alv	16	16	6	38%	82.1	68.2%	1.09	—
MRcreed	10	17	4	50%	55.0	47.8%	0.59	—
karnez	7	18	8	57%	52.1	52.4%	0.48	6.1
Salazar	9	17	3	67%	63.9	33.3%	0.46	—

Teams

Players in this match

Alv REDSTAR Skrimo SPELLAN KalubeR h4rn 4X1s MRcreed karnez Salazar