KOLESIE vs Atreides — CounterQuant

T3 BO3 CS2 2026-06-05

KOLESIE

0 : 2

Atreides wins

Atreides Winner

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-APEX v3 · Primary Prediction

Atreides 51% (prob 0.510)

Correct

KOLESIE Atreides

49% 51%

Shadow bet: 1.0u @ 1.965 → 1.0u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	KOLESIE	vs	Atreides	Edge
dust2	31% (8/26)		50% (5/10)	-19pp
mirage	58% (19/33)		75% (15/20)	-17pp
nuke	68% (23/34)		54% (7/13)	+14pp
overpass	50% (6/12)		42% (5/12)	+8pp
ancient	72% (26/36)		75% (9/12)	-3pp
inferno	—	·	60% (6/10)
anubis	50% (8/16)	·	—
vertigo	—	·	—

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

KOLESIE bans

dust2 31% WR

mirage 58% WR

Atreides bans

overpass 42% WR

nuke 54% WR

KOLESIE pick

ancient

49% — KOLESIE favored

Decider

anubis

Decider

vertigo

Atreides pick

inferno

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

dust2

38%

62%

Atreides

mirage

44%

56%

Atreides

nuke

56%

44%

KOLESIE

overpass

54%

46%

even

ancient

49%

51%

even

KOLESIE on left · Atreides on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
KOLESIE
MVP fr3nd AWP	26	26	6	31%	76.4	67.5%	1.03	6.9
ex1st RIFLER	26	27	6	46%	81.3	60.0%	0.98	4.7
Qlocuu RIFLER	27	31	5	56%	79.8	60.0%	0.94	6.6
b1elany RIFLER	21	27	2	57%	65.5	55.0%	0.77	7.1
innocent ENTRY	14	30	7	43%	51.3	47.5%	0.49	6.3
Atreides WIN
MVP DEPRESHN AWP	36	23	7	42%	90.9	70.0%	1.35	6.8
Goody RIFLER	33	24	3	64%	93.0	60.0%	1.20	4.8
Chill	29	27	14	41%	79.2	75.0%	1.16	—
smekk	24	21	6	58%	65.5	65.0%	1.00	—
dan1 ENTRY	25	25	4	40%	67.4	60.0%	0.93	4.2

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
KOLESIE
b1elany	11	13	2	64%	79.0	64.7%	0.95	7.1
fr3nd	10	11	2	40%	68.5	64.7%	0.93	6.9
ex1st	11	13	2	45%	81.4	58.8%	0.92	4.7
Qlocuu	9	15	2	44%	69.1	47.1%	0.63	6.6
innocent	6	15	1	50%	45.8	41.2%	0.35	6.3
Atreides WIN
Goody	19	7	1	68%	119.5	70.6%	1.71	4.8
DEPRESHN	18	11	4	50%	117.8	76.5%	1.59	6.8
smekk	14	9	2	57%	79.7	64.7%	1.23	—
Chill	10	11	6	50%	70.3	76.5%	1.04	—
Dan1	8	11	2	25%	48.5	58.8%	0.72	4.2

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
KOLESIE
Qlocuu	18	16	3	61%	87.8	69.6%	1.17	6.6
fr3nd	16	15	4	25%	82.1	69.6%	1.10	6.9
ex1st	15	14	4	47%	81.2	60.9%	1.02	4.7
b1elany	10	14	0	50%	55.5	47.8%	0.64	7.1
innocent	8	15	6	38%	55.4	52.2%	0.60	6.3
Atreides WIN
Chill	19	16	8	37%	85.8	73.9%	1.25	—
DEPRESHN	18	12	3	33%	71.0	65.2%	1.18	6.8
Dan1	17	14	2	47%	81.3	60.9%	1.09	4.2
smekk	10	12	4	60%	55.1	65.2%	0.83	—
Goody	14	17	2	57%	73.5	52.2%	0.82	4.8

Teams

Players in this match

DEPRESHN Goody Chill fr3nd smekk ex1st Qlocuu dan1 b1elany innocent