Walczaki vs KOLESIE — CounterQuant

T3 BO3 CS2 2026-06-04

Walczaki Winner

2 : 1

Walczaki wins

KOLESIE

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-APEX v3 · Primary Prediction

KOLESIE 58% (prob 0.583)

Wrong

Walczaki KOLESIE

42% 58%

Shadow bet: 7.3u @ 1.752 → -7.3u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	Walczaki	vs	KOLESIE	Edge
overpass	0% (0/2)		50% (6/12)	-50pp
anubis	82% (9/11)		50% (8/16)	+32pp
dust2	60% (6/10)		31% (8/26)	+29pp
mirage	86% (6/7)		58% (19/33)	+28pp
nuke	58% (11/19)		68% (23/34)	-10pp
ancient	75% (9/12)		72% (26/36)	+3pp
inferno	62% (5/8)	·	—
vertigo	—	·	—

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

Walczaki bans

nuke 58% WR

ancient 75% WR

KOLESIE bans

dust2 31% WR

anubis 50% WR

Walczaki pick

mirage

60% — Walczaki favored

Decider

overpass

100% KOLESIE

Decider

vertigo

KOLESIE pick

inferno

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

overpass

100%

KOLESIE

anubis

62%

38%

Walczaki

dust2

66%

34%

Walczaki

mirage

60%

40%

Walczaki

nuke

46%

54%

even

ancient

51%

49%

even

Walczaki on left · KOLESIE on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Walczaki WIN
MVP moonwalk RIFLER	65	61	20	51%	81.7	70.1%	1.13	7.7
sk1tt	67	69	17	58%	90.3	70.1%	1.13	—
SaMey AWP	57	51	19	33%	72.5	65.5%	1.05	8.3
olimp ENTRY	66	68	15	53%	86.2	60.9%	1.04	7.7
bajmi RIFLER	62	65	13	56%	74.3	58.6%	0.96	7.7
KOLESIE
MVP b1elany RIFLER	75	58	16	52%	86.4	64.4%	1.22	7.1
ex1st RIFLER	67	62	28	42%	89.3	73.6%	1.20	4.7
Qlocuu RIFLER	58	67	26	57%	81.6	70.1%	1.03	6.6
innocent ENTRY	59	65	25	58%	75.6	67.8%	1.02	6.3
fr3nd AWP	52	66	15	23%	69.2	55.2%	0.82	6.9

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Walczaki WIN
sk1tt	22	18	1	73%	91.7	82.6%	1.37	—
olimp	23	19	3	52%	90.4	69.6%	1.30	7.7
SaMey	19	14	4	63%	79.9	78.3%	1.30	8.3
bajmi	20	15	3	55%	81.0	69.6%	1.25	7.7
moonwalk	17	15	2	24%	65.6	73.9%	1.11	7.7
KOLESIE
ex1st	19	19	7	37%	90.2	73.9%	1.19	4.7
innocent	19	19	7	53%	79.4	69.6%	1.13	6.3
b1elany	15	21	4	53%	60.2	69.6%	0.86	7.1
fr3nd	15	18	4	40%	60.4	56.5%	0.83	6.9
Qlocuu	10	21	5	40%	56.4	52.2%	0.53	6.6

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Walczaki
moonwalk	23	24	10	70%	102.6	69.0%	1.17	7.7
olimp	20	21	6	55%	85.7	58.6%	1.00	7.7
sk1tt	22	26	5	50%	86.7	55.2%	0.94	—
bajmi	19	21	3	63%	74.3	58.6%	0.92	7.7
SaMey	14	15	6	43%	59.0	58.6%	0.84	8.3
KOLESIE WIN
b1elany	31	16	6	55%	101.7	69.0%	1.54	7.1
ex1st	23	18	7	43%	86.3	75.9%	1.27	4.7
innocent	19	21	6	63%	75.9	72.4%	1.03	6.3
fr3nd	18	22	6	17%	76.6	62.1%	0.91	6.9
Qlocuu	17	22	9	76%	77.7	62.1%	0.90	6.6

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Walczaki WIN
sk1tt	23	25	11	52%	92.5	74.3%	1.12	—
moonwalk	25	22	8	52%	75.1	68.6%	1.11	7.7
SaMey	24	22	9	4%	78.9	62.9%	1.06	8.3
olimp	23	28	6	52%	83.9	57.1%	0.91	7.7
bajmi	23	29	7	52%	69.8	51.4%	0.81	7.7
KOLESIE
Qlocuu	31	24	12	52%	101.3	88.6%	1.47	6.6
b1elany	29	21	6	48%	91.0	57.1%	1.18	7.1
ex1st	25	25	14	44%	91.3	71.4%	1.15	4.7
innocent	21	25	12	57%	73.0	62.9%	0.93	6.3
fr3nd	19	26	5	16%	68.9	48.6%	0.72	6.9

Teams

Players in this match

b1elany ex1st moonwalk sk1tt SaMey olimp Qlocuu innocent bajmi fr3nd