G2 vs BIG — CounterQuant

T1 BO3 CS2 2026-06-08

G2 Winner

2 : 0

G2 wins

BIG

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-ORACLE v1 · Primary Prediction

G2 55% (prob 0.548)

Correct

G2 BIG

55% 45%

Why — Top Feature Drivers

econ anti eco wr t1 -0.104 Map-pool Elo +0.101 Rest days +0.094

Shadow bet: 3.3u @ 1.850 → 2.8u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	G2	BIG	Edge
nuke	62% (44/71)	45% (48/106)	+17pp
inferno	63% (74/117)	51% (47/93)	+12pp
overpass	54% (13/24)	62% (47/76)	-8pp
mirage	58% (49/84)	51% (62/122)	+7pp
dust2	61% (43/70)	54% (46/85)	+7pp
anubis	54% (28/52)	47% (32/68)	+7pp
ancient	62% (55/89)	58% (82/141)	+4pp
vertigo	55% (16/29)	58% (42/73)	-3pp

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

G2 bans

overpass 54% WR

anubis 54% WR

BIG bans

nuke 45% WR

inferno 51% WR

G2 pick

ancient

52% — G2 favored

Decider

mirage

53% G2

Decider

dust2

53% G2

BIG pick

vertigo

51% — BIG favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

nuke

58%

42%

inferno

55%

45%

overpass

47%

53%

even

mirage

53%

47%

even

dust2

53%

47%

even

anubis

53%

47%

even

ancient

52%

48%

even

vertigo

49%

51%

even

G2 on left · BIG on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
G2 WIN
MVP NertZ RIFLER	26	9	9	69%	128.0	95.0%	2.09	9.6
SunPayus AWP	22	11	4	27%	116.3	94.4%	1.88	9.8
MATYS ENTRY	16	9	5	56%	91.0	85.7%	1.66	9.6
huNter- SUPPORT	33	20	11	70%	105.1	78.1%	1.56	9.7
HeavyGod RIFLER	21	18	7	67%	88.2	66.7%	1.14	9.7
BIG
MVP faveN RIFLER	19	28	3	47%	74.0	50.0%	0.72	8.6
gr1ks AWP	16	23	4	31%	63.4	51.7%	0.71	9.1
tabseN ENTRY	16	27	5	50%	64.0	48.4%	0.62	8.6
blameF RIFLER	8	18	5	25%	33.8	42.9%	0.38	9.2
JDC RIFLER	6	19	5	83%	38.1	42.9%	0.29	8.6

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
G2 WIN
MATYS	6	4	0	50%	92.0	80.0%	1.55	9.6
SunPayus	5	4	0	0%	69.8	100.0%	1.45	9.8
huNter-	17	11	4	53%	107.8	64.7%	1.42	9.7
HeavyGod	12	10	4	67%	98.3	66.7%	1.23	9.7
NertZ	5	5	2	40%	45.8	83.3%	1.13	9.6
BIG
gr1ks	11	9	1	36%	82.9	64.3%	1.14	9.1
blameF	3	3	2	33%	54.0	60.0%	0.91	9.2
JDC	3	4	2	67%	67.8	60.0%	0.85	8.6
faveN	9	13	2	22%	74.9	50.0%	0.73	8.6
tabseN	8	13	2	50%	66.5	60.0%	0.73	8.6

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
G2 WIN
NertZ	21	4	7	76%	163.1	100.0%	2.51	9.6
SunPayus	17	7	4	35%	134.2	92.3%	2.04	9.8
MATYS	10	5	5	60%	90.4	88.9%	1.72	9.6
huNter-	16	9	7	88%	102.1	93.3%	1.72	9.7
HeavyGod	9	8	3	67%	78.2	66.7%	1.05	9.7
BIG
faveN	10	15	1	70%	73.1	50.0%	0.71	8.6
tabseN	8	14	3	50%	61.7	37.5%	0.52	8.6
gr1ks	5	14	3	20%	45.2	40.0%	0.31	9.1
blameF	5	15	3	20%	27.5	37.5%	0.21	9.2
JDC	3	15	3	100%	28.8	37.5%	0.11	8.6

Teams

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BIG

View team →

Players in this match

NertZ SunPayus MATYS huNter- HeavyGod faveN gr1ks tabseN blameF JDC