Monte vs BetBoom — CounterQuant

T1 BO3 CS2 2026-06-08

Monte

1 : 2

BetBoom wins

BetBoom Winner

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-ORACLE v1 · Primary Prediction

BetBoom 55% (prob 0.550)

Correct

Monte BetBoom

45% 55%

Why — Top Feature Drivers

wr10 t2 -0.123 econ anti eco wr t1 -0.114 Map-pool Elo -0.076

Shadow bet: 3.4u @ 1.843 → 2.9u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	Monte	BetBoom	Edge
vertigo	59% (34/58)	31% (8/26)	+28pp
overpass	44% (17/39)	61% (37/61)	-17pp
inferno	62% (8/13)	50% (2/4)	+12pp
dust2	53% (56/105)	65% (40/62)	-12pp
mirage	52% (96/184)	60% (84/139)	-8pp
ancient	53% (83/158)	60% (72/121)	-7pp
nuke	56% (96/172)	60% (79/132)	-4pp
anubis	58% (67/115)	59% (47/80)	-1pp

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

Monte bans

overpass 44% WR

mirage 52% WR

BetBoom bans

vertigo 31% WR

inferno 50% WR

Monte pick

anubis

50% — Monte favored

Decider

ancient

53% BetBoom

Decider

nuke

52% BetBoom

BetBoom pick

dust2

55% — BetBoom favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

vertigo

66%

34%

Monte

overpass

42%

58%

BetBoom

inferno

55%

45%

Monte

dust2

45%

55%

BetBoom

mirage

46%

54%

even

ancient

47%

53%

even

nuke

48%

52%

even

anubis

50%

even

Monte on left · BetBoom on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Monte
MVP Rainwaker RIFLER	47	42	11	43%	94.9	61.0%	1.14	9.4
AZUWU ENTRY	42	45	14	64%	79.0	65.5%	1.03	8.9
Gizmy ENTRY	37	38	12	51%	69.2	62.5%	0.97	8.9
afro AWP	31	33	13	26%	68.2	58.5%	0.91	9.5
Bymas RIFLER	25	41	13	52%	62.7	55.6%	0.69	9.4
BetBoom WIN
MVP Magnojez RIFLER	59	33	12	49%	102.6	68.4%	1.50	9.4
d1Ledez RIFLER	46	38	8	76%	87.6	70.2%	1.21	8.9
FL4MUS	39	34	11	62%	92.1	60.8%	1.13	—
Boombl4 SUPPORT	28	42	13	36%	58.0	60.3%	0.74	9.3
zorte AWP	26	37	12	38%	61.8	54.7%	0.73	9.5

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Monte
Rainwaker	15	16	4	60%	99.6	50.0%	0.99	9.4
Bymas	11	14	3	45%	77.0	61.1%	0.88	9.4
AZUWU	12	16	6	67%	59.2	66.7%	0.85	8.9
Gizmy	9	15	8	56%	61.1	63.2%	0.75	8.9
afro	11	15	5	18%	66.2	50.0%	0.74	9.5
BetBoom WIN
Magnojez	25	12	6	40%	116.2	71.4%	1.71	9.4
d1Ledez	19	13	3	68%	85.0	77.3%	1.34	8.9
FL4MUS	12	9	5	42%	79.9	64.7%	1.15	—
Boombl4	15	13	5	33%	67.7	70.0%	1.12	9.3
zorte	6	13	7	0%	65.1	64.7%	0.68	9.5

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Monte WIN
Rainwaker	20	10	3	35%	111.1	79.0%	1.64	9.4
AZUWU	16	13	6	69%	98.2	79.0%	1.35	8.9
Gizmy	14	8	2	50%	73.4	76.5%	1.33	8.9
afro	9	8	4	33%	65.6	66.7%	1.02	9.5
Bymas	10	12	7	60%	70.9	68.4%	0.94	9.4
BetBoom
Magnojez	16	12	2	50%	83.6	61.1%	1.20	9.4
d1Ledez	14	14	4	71%	93.1	63.2%	1.09	8.9
FL4MUS	8	13	3	88%	77.4	43.8%	0.65	—
zorte	7	14	1	43%	43.9	44.4%	0.45	9.5
Boombl4	4	16	4	50%	43.4	47.4%	0.30	9.3

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Monte
afro	11	10	4	27%	72.7	61.1%	1.00	9.5
AZUWU	14	16	2	57%	81.7	50.0%	0.90	8.9
Gizmy	14	15	2	50%	73.3	50.0%	0.88	8.9
Rainwaker	12	16	4	33%	74.9	55.0%	0.82	9.4
Bymas	4	15	3	50%	38.3	35.3%	0.19	9.4
BetBoom WIN
Magnojez	18	9	4	61%	105.7	72.2%	1.55	9.4
FL4MUS	19	12	3	63%	116.7	72.2%	1.54	—
d1Ledez	13	11	1	92%	84.6	68.8%	1.18	8.9
zorte	13	10	4	54%	76.5	55.6%	1.06	9.5
Boombl4	9	13	4	33%	62.2	63.2%	0.79	9.3

Teams

Players in this match

Magnojez d1Ledez Rainwaker FL4MUS AZUWU Gizmy afro Boombl4 zorte Bymas