Astralis vs paiN — CounterQuant

T1 BO3 CS2 2026-06-08

Astralis

0 : 2

paiN wins

paiN Winner

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-ORACLE v1 · Primary Prediction

Astralis 51% (prob 0.513)

Wrong

Astralis paiN

51% 49%

Why — Top Feature Drivers

econ anti eco wr t1 -0.121 Map-pool Elo +0.094 Elo edge -0.094

Shadow bet: 1.0u @ 1.957 → -1.0u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	Astralis	paiN	Edge
anubis	0% (0/1)	64% (75/118)	-64pp
overpass	67% (44/66)	34% (12/35)	+33pp
ancient	63% (59/93)	39% (9/23)	+24pp
mirage	40% (34/86)	62% (75/121)	-22pp
vertigo	51% (19/37)	66% (59/90)	-15pp
dust2	37% (19/52)	51% (38/74)	-14pp
nuke	57% (60/106)	67% (112/167)	-10pp
inferno	55% (44/80)	49% (48/97)	+6pp

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

Astralis bans

dust2 37% WR

mirage 40% WR

paiN bans

overpass 34% WR

ancient 39% WR

Astralis pick

nuke

46% — Astralis favored

Decider

anubis

100% paiN

Decider

inferno

53% Astralis

paiN pick

vertigo

56% — paiN favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

anubis

100%

paiN

overpass

66%

34%

Astralis

ancient

62%

38%

Astralis

mirage

39%

61%

paiN

vertigo

44%

56%

paiN

dust2

42%

58%

paiN

nuke

46%

54%

even

inferno

53%

47%

even

Astralis on left · paiN on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Astralis
MVP ryu	29	29	5	48%	77.1	61.1%	1.04	—
Staehr RIFLER	27	28	5	44%	82.6	54.1%	0.96	9.6
phzy AWP	26	27	6	31%	73.4	57.9%	0.95	9.7
HooXi ENTRY	19	29	13	47%	66.8	60.5%	0.78	9.4
jabbi RIFLER	23	33	8	65%	69.7	53.9%	0.76	9.6
paiN WIN
MVP snow RIFLER	42	21	13	57%	117.7	71.1%	1.65	9.2
piriajr RIFLER	29	26	8	69%	85.8	68.4%	1.15	9.3
biguzera ENTRY	24	23	13	50%	85.4	58.3%	1.03	9.0
v$m	27	28	8	59%	79.5	61.1%	1.02	—
saffee AWP	26	28	4	35%	84.2	60.0%	1.00	9.0

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Astralis
Staehr	19	14	2	47%	95.6	66.7%	1.29	9.6
ryu	17	14	3	47%	78.1	61.9%	1.12	—
jabbi	16	19	4	56%	79.7	60.9%	0.94	9.6
phzy	13	14	5	38%	65.1	61.9%	0.93	9.7
HooXi	13	14	6	38%	75.9	52.4%	0.90	9.4
paiN WIN
snow	22	13	6	64%	112.5	68.2%	1.50	9.2
saffee	19	16	1	37%	89.8	63.6%	1.18	9.0
biguzera	13	16	8	46%	83.2	59.1%	0.92	9.0
v$m	11	17	4	36%	60.2	55.0%	0.70	—
piriajr	10	16	6	60%	64.3	54.6%	0.70	9.3

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Astralis
phzy	13	13	1	23%	83.7	52.9%	0.98	9.7
ryu	12	15	2	50%	75.8	60.0%	0.91	—
HooXi	6	15	7	67%	55.5	70.6%	0.63	9.4
Staehr	8	14	3	38%	65.5	37.5%	0.53	9.6
jabbi	7	14	4	86%	55.4	43.8%	0.50	9.6
paiN WIN
snow	20	8	7	50%	125.0	75.0%	1.87	9.2
piriajr	19	10	2	74%	115.4	87.5%	1.78	9.3
v$m	16	11	4	75%	103.7	68.8%	1.42	—
biguzera	11	7	5	55%	89.0	57.1%	1.21	9.0
saffee	7	12	3	29%	74.7	53.9%	0.69	9.0

Teams

Players in this match

snow piriajr ryu biguzera v$m saffee Staehr phzy HooXi jabbi