FlyQuest vs paiN — CounterQuant

T1 BO3 CS2 2026-06-07

FlyQuest

0 : 2

paiN wins

paiN Winner

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-ORACLE v1 · Primary Prediction

FlyQuest 69% (prob 0.689)

Wrong

FlyQuest paiN

69% 31%

Why — Top Feature Drivers

econ full wr t1 +0.394 econ force freq diff +0.235 Buy power +0.209

Shadow bet: 18.9u @ 1.514 → -18.9u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	FlyQuest	paiN	Edge
nuke	41% (13/32)	67% (112/167)	-26pp
ancient	60% (25/42)	39% (9/23)	+21pp
mirage	52% (16/31)	62% (75/121)	-10pp
inferno	59% (30/51)	49% (48/97)	+10pp
dust2	61% (25/41)	51% (38/74)	+10pp
anubis	72% (29/40)	64% (75/118)	+8pp
vertigo	62% (5/8)	66% (59/90)	-4pp
overpass	33% (2/6)	34% (12/35)	-1pp

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

FlyQuest bans

overpass 33% WR

nuke 41% WR

paiN bans

ancient 39% WR

inferno 49% WR

FlyQuest pick

anubis

53% — FlyQuest favored

Decider

dust2

54% FlyQuest

Decider

mirage

54% paiN

paiN pick

vertigo

52% — paiN favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

nuke

38%

62%

paiN

ancient

61%

39%

FlyQuest

mirage

46%

54%

even

inferno

55%

45%

FlyQuest

dust2

54%

46%

even

anubis

53%

47%

even

vertigo

48%

52%

even

overpass

49%

51%

even

FlyQuest on left · paiN on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
FlyQuest
MVP Vexite RIFLER	27	30	8	37%	82.6	61.5%	0.98	8.5
INS	32	31	2	34%	77.1	54.8%	0.98	—
jks RIFLER	26	32	9	65%	78.4	61.5%	0.92	9.2
story AWP	23	24	6	30%	63.1	52.8%	0.86	9.0
nettik SUPPORT	14	29	14	71%	55.3	50.0%	0.55	8.7
paiN WIN
MVP saffee AWP	33	21	7	52%	90.6	75.0%	1.40	9.0
piriajr RIFLER	33	23	7	48%	95.8	75.7%	1.38	9.3
biguzera ENTRY	31	29	12	52%	89.8	60.0%	1.10	9.0
snow RIFLER	25	25	10	68%	77.8	63.2%	1.02	9.2
v$m	28	28	7	57%	77.1	61.9%	1.00	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
FlyQuest
INS	15	14	1	40%	97.1	57.9%	1.09	—
story	13	14	4	23%	67.7	57.9%	0.92	9.0
nettik	9	14	8	67%	62.4	61.1%	0.77	8.7
jks	10	16	3	70%	69.8	55.6%	0.71	9.2
Vexite	7	16	2	43%	51.9	50.0%	0.47	8.5
paiN WIN
saffee	17	9	5	65%	99.2	82.4%	1.59	9.0
piriajr	14	10	3	36%	87.9	81.3%	1.38	9.3
biguzera	17	13	5	53%	97.2	65.0%	1.26	9.0
snow	15	12	5	67%	85.4	63.2%	1.17	9.2
v$m	11	10	2	73%	62.9	57.9%	0.92	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
FlyQuest
Vexite	20	14	6	35%	109.0	71.4%	1.43	8.5
jks	16	16	6	63%	85.8	66.7%	1.10	9.2
INS	17	17	1	29%	60.7	52.2%	0.89	—
story	10	10	2	40%	57.8	47.1%	0.80	9.0
nettik	5	15	6	80%	48.9	40.0%	0.36	8.7
paiN WIN
piriajr	19	13	4	58%	101.8	71.4%	1.38	9.3
saffee	16	12	2	38%	83.0	68.4%	1.23	9.0
v$m	17	18	5	47%	88.7	65.2%	1.07	—
biguzera	14	16	7	50%	82.4	55.0%	0.94	9.0
snow	10	13	5	70%	70.2	63.2%	0.86	9.2

Teams

Players in this match

saffee piriajr biguzera snow v$m Vexite INS jks story nettik