M80 vs NRG — CounterQuant

T1 BO3 CS2 2026-06-04

M80 Winner

2 : 0

M80 wins

NRG

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-APEX v3 · Primary Prediction

NRG 57% (prob 0.569)

Wrong

M80 NRG

43% 57%

Shadow bet: 5.8u @ 1.789 → -5.8u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	M80	NRG	Edge
ancient	72% (87/120)	58% (37/64)	+14pp
overpass	69% (29/42)	57% (13/23)	+12pp
dust2	56% (35/63)	65% (48/74)	-9pp
inferno	60% (50/83)	68% (54/79)	-8pp
vertigo	69% (29/42)	77% (17/22)	-8pp
anubis	59% (38/64)	62% (33/53)	-3pp
mirage	71% (64/90)	72% (68/95)	-1pp
nuke	47% (8/17)	47% (25/53)	0pp

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

M80 bans

nuke 47% WR

dust2 56% WR

NRG bans

overpass 57% WR

ancient 58% WR

M80 pick

mirage

50% — M80 favored

Decider

inferno

53% NRG

Decider

anubis

51% NRG

NRG pick

vertigo

53% — NRG favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

ancient

55%

45%

M80

overpass

55%

45%

M80

dust2

46%

54%

even

inferno

47%

53%

even

vertigo

47%

53%

even

anubis

49%

51%

even

mirage

50%

even

nuke

50%

even

M80 on left · NRG on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
M80 WIN
MVP JBa RIFLER	35	20	10	60%	92.3	85.7%	1.47	9.4
Swisher SUPPORT	33	23	8	39%	86.2	76.2%	1.30	9.5
s1n SUPPORT	29	22	20	55%	86.5	81.0%	1.29	9.4
Lake RIFLER	34	29	13	50%	96.2	69.1%	1.24	9.3
slaxz- AWP	20	23	10	40%	53.3	76.2%	0.93	9.5
NRG
MVP Grim	32	27	12	50%	99.9	66.7%	1.21	—
br0	24	31	8	71%	75.6	64.3%	0.89	—
Sonic	23	33	11	57%	70.0	54.8%	0.77	—
nitr0	19	30	7	68%	58.5	57.1%	0.69	—
oSee AWP	17	30	14	41%	55.0	54.8%	0.64	9.5

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
M80 WIN
Lake	21	15	5	48%	94.5	73.9%	1.37	9.3
JBa	17	13	6	71%	90.4	87.0%	1.35	9.4
s1n	15	13	9	53%	75.4	69.6%	1.11	9.4
Swisher	16	13	3	38%	73.6	65.2%	1.09	9.5
slaxz-	9	14	7	56%	44.8	73.9%	0.79	9.5
NRG
Grim	18	14	7	50%	100.2	65.2%	1.24	—
Sonic	16	15	6	50%	75.7	56.5%	1.00	—
br0	12	16	6	83%	79.1	69.6%	0.93	—
oSee	10	15	9	30%	56.1	56.5%	0.72	9.5
nitr0	10	16	2	70%	52.4	52.2%	0.62	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
M80 WIN
JBa	18	7	4	50%	94.7	84.2%	1.62	9.4
Swisher	17	10	5	41%	101.6	89.5%	1.56	9.5
s1n	14	9	11	57%	99.8	94.7%	1.52	9.4
slaxz-	11	9	3	27%	63.5	79.0%	1.11	9.5
Lake	13	14	8	54%	98.2	63.2%	1.08	9.3
NRG
Grim	14	13	5	50%	99.5	68.4%	1.18	—
br0	12	15	2	58%	71.2	57.9%	0.85	—
nitr0	9	14	5	67%	65.8	63.2%	0.78	—
oSee	7	15	5	57%	53.7	52.6%	0.54	9.5
Sonic	7	18	5	71%	63.1	52.6%	0.49	—

Teams

Players in this match

JBa Swisher s1n Lake Grim slaxz- br0 Sonic nitr0 oSee