Liquid vs HEROIC — CounterQuant

T1 BO3 CS2 2026-06-04

Liquid Winner

2 : 0

Liquid wins

HEROIC

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-APEX v3 · Primary Prediction

Liquid 52% (prob 0.515)

Correct

Liquid HEROIC

52% 48%

Shadow bet: 1.2u @ 1.950 → 1.1u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	Liquid	HEROIC	Edge
vertigo	25% (4/16)	58% (28/48)	-33pp
overpass	53% (19/36)	67% (39/58)	-14pp
nuke	46% (38/82)	53% (60/113)	-7pp
ancient	62% (53/86)	55% (54/99)	+7pp
dust2	47% (28/60)	53% (39/74)	-6pp
anubis	61% (39/64)	56% (27/48)	+5pp
mirage	56% (49/87)	60% (75/124)	-4pp
inferno	55% (56/102)	54% (38/70)	+1pp

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

Liquid bans

vertigo 25% WR

dust2 47% WR

HEROIC bans

nuke 53% WR

inferno 54% WR

Liquid pick

ancient

53% — Liquid favored

Decider

anubis

52% Liquid

Decider

mirage

52% HEROIC

HEROIC pick

overpass

56% — HEROIC favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

vertigo

30%

70%

HEROIC

overpass

44%

56%

HEROIC

nuke

46%

54%

even

ancient

53%

47%

even

dust2

47%

53%

even

anubis

52%

48%

even

mirage

48%

52%

even

inferno

50%

even

Liquid on left · HEROIC on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Liquid WIN
MVP NAF	37	24	13	41%	103.9	90.5%	1.54	—
EliGE	37	27	13	54%	99.8	88.1%	1.47	—
malbsMd	37	26	10	59%	98.8	73.8%	1.37	—
ultimate	30	24	19	23%	83.7	88.1%	1.33	—
siuhy ENTRY	20	23	14	40%	62.5	73.8%	0.95	7.6
HEROIC
MVP Chr1zN ENTRY	32	32	6	59%	89.5	57.1%	1.03	9.0
yxngstxr AWP	27	31	10	56%	77.3	71.4%	1.02	9.5
nilo	29	32	5	59%	73.8	54.8%	0.90	—
susp ENTRY	19	32	7	47%	58.2	57.1%	0.67	9.2
xfl0ud RIFLER	15	33	13	60%	54.9	59.5%	0.59	9.4

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Liquid WIN
NAF	19	9	7	37%	127.7	94.4%	1.84	—
EliGE	20	11	4	45%	113.8	88.9%	1.73	—
ultimate	14	9	7	29%	92.3	88.9%	1.45	—
siuhy	12	10	7	33%	77.9	83.3%	1.24	7.6
malbsMd	11	10	3	82%	73.4	66.7%	1.03	—
HEROIC
Chr1zN	14	15	2	64%	89.0	50.0%	0.95	9.0
xfl0ud	11	14	3	64%	70.1	66.7%	0.90	9.4
susp	9	16	2	44%	65.4	50.0%	0.61	9.2
nilo	10	16	2	50%	60.4	44.4%	0.60	—
yxngstxr	5	16	7	40%	52.9	55.6%	0.44	9.5

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Liquid WIN
malbsMd	26	16	7	50%	117.9	79.2%	1.63	—
NAF	18	15	6	44%	86.0	87.5%	1.32	—
EliGE	17	16	9	65%	89.3	87.5%	1.28	—
ultimate	16	15	12	19%	77.3	87.5%	1.24	—
siuhy	8	13	7	50%	51.0	66.7%	0.74	7.6
HEROIC
yxngstxr	22	15	3	59%	95.5	83.3%	1.45	9.5
nilo	19	16	3	63%	83.8	62.5%	1.13	—
Chr1zN	18	17	4	56%	89.9	62.5%	1.09	9.0
susp	10	16	5	50%	52.7	62.5%	0.71	9.2
xfl0ud	4	19	10	50%	43.6	54.2%	0.36	9.4

Teams

Players in this match

NAF EliGE malbsMd ultimate Chr1zN yxngstxr siuhy nilo susp xfl0ud