G2 Ares vs aAa — CounterQuant

T2 BO3 CS2 2026-06-06

G2 Ares Winner

2 : 0

G2 Ares wins

aAa

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-APEX v3 · Primary Prediction

G2 Ares 70% (prob 0.696)

Correct

G2 Ares aAa

70% 30%

Shadow bet: 19.2u @ 1.499 → 9.6u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	G2 Ares	vs	aAa	Edge
inferno	59% (23/39)		14% (1/7)	+45pp
overpass	45% (10/22)		0% (0/2)	+45pp
dust2	60% (15/25)		38% (5/13)	+22pp
ancient	48% (20/42)		40% (4/10)	+8pp
anubis	65% (11/17)		67% (2/3)	-2pp
mirage	49% (17/35)	·	—
nuke	—	·	31% (4/13)
vertigo	100% (1/1)	·	—

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

G2 Ares bans

ancient 48% WR

dust2 60% WR

aAa bans

inferno 14% WR

anubis 67% WR

G2 Ares pick

mirage

Decider

nuke

Decider

vertigo

aAa pick

overpass

0% — aAa favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

inferno

81%

19%

G2 Ares

overpass

100%

G2 Ares

dust2

61%

39%

G2 Ares

ancient

55%

45%

G2 Ares

anubis

49%

51%

even

G2 Ares on left · aAa on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
G2 Ares WIN
MVP junyme	36	11	10	53%	118.9	88.9%	2.06	—
chitori	42	23	12	48%	125.9	83.3%	1.91	—
tAk RIFLER	29	18	10	55%	100.3	86.7%	1.56	5.3
yksjupe	29	19	7	66%	102.1	75.9%	1.48	—
SHiNE SUPPORT	28	20	16	54%	62.5	86.2%	1.41	3.9
aAa
MVP Asi0K	20	35	11	55%	78.8	62.1%	0.76	—
Tarkky RIFLER	22	29	6	32%	71.3	45.2%	0.75	4.3
Rain	21	37	6	57%	79.7	61.3%	0.73	—
slie9000	14	31	8	50%	65.6	51.7%	0.52	—
Saax	8	30	5	25%	41.9	32.1%	0.12	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
G2 Ares WIN
chitori	27	9	7	41%	141.1	93.8%	2.40	—
junyme	22	6	7	50%	133.5	92.9%	2.35	—
tAk	13	8	2	62%	98.6	85.7%	1.52	5.3
yksjupe	12	10	4	58%	93.5	76.9%	1.34	—
SHiNE	11	10	10	27%	46.5	93.3%	1.24	3.9
aAa
Rain	14	20	4	71%	95.6	68.8%	0.98	—
slie9000	9	17	3	67%	63.8	43.8%	0.52	—
Asi0K	7	18	7	86%	59.1	56.3%	0.48	—
Tarkky	7	16	4	43%	48.3	31.3%	0.31	4.3
Saax	5	15	2	20%	39.1	33.3%	0.20	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
G2 Ares WIN
junyme	14	5	3	57%	103.2	84.6%	1.76	—
tAk	16	10	8	50%	101.8	87.5%	1.61	5.3
SHiNE	17	10	6	71%	79.6	78.6%	1.60	3.9
yksjupe	17	9	3	71%	109.0	75.0%	1.60	—
chitori	15	14	5	60%	108.5	71.4%	1.36	—
aAa
Tarkky	15	13	2	27%	95.9	60.0%	1.22	4.3
Asi0K	13	17	4	38%	102.9	69.2%	1.09	—
slie9000	5	14	5	20%	67.9	61.5%	0.53	—
Rain	7	17	2	29%	62.6	53.3%	0.46	—
Saax	3	15	3	33%	45.1	30.8%	0.04	—

Teams

Players in this match

junyme chitori tAk yksjupe SHiNE Asi0K Tarkky Rain slie9000 Saax