ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves — CounterQuant

T2 BO3 CS2 2026-06-06

ex-RUBY

0 : 2

100 Thieves wins

100 Thieves Winner

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-ORACLE v1 · Primary Prediction

ex-RUBY 51% (prob 0.513)

Wrong

ex-RUBY 100 Thieves

51% 49%

Why — Top Feature Drivers

Map-pool Elo +0.319 Elo edge -0.315 Schedule strength -0.293

Shadow bet: 1.0u @ 1.957 → -1.0u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	ex-RUBY	vs	100 Thieves	Edge
inferno	0% (0/1)		72% (18/25)	-72pp
ancient	55% (22/40)		68% (15/22)	-13pp
anubis	50% (6/12)		40% (2/5)	+10pp
dust2	66% (37/56)		73% (19/26)	-7pp
mirage	55% (29/53)		50% (7/14)	+5pp
overpass	63% (17/27)		67% (2/3)	-4pp
nuke	62% (28/45)		62% (15/24)	0pp
vertigo	—	·	50% (5/10)

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

ex-RUBY bans

anubis 50% WR

ancient 55% WR

100 Thieves bans

mirage 50% WR

nuke 62% WR

ex-RUBY pick

dust2

47% — ex-RUBY favored

Decider

inferno

100% 100 Thieves

Decider

vertigo

100 Thieves pick

overpass

52% — 100 Thieves favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

inferno

100%

100 Thieves

ancient

45%

55%

100 Thieves

anubis

56%

44%

ex-RUBY

dust2

47%

53%

even

mirage

52%

48%

even

overpass

48%

52%

even

nuke

50%

even

ex-RUBY on left · 100 Thieves on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
ex-RUBY
MVP relaxxie	33	29	7	58%	93.3	60.5%	1.16	—
sh1nejezzz RIFLER	27	32	6	70%	84.5	66.7%	1.01	7.8
YumsaN AWP	20	29	14	50%	86.4	48.6%	0.79	7.9
H4SAN4TOR ENTRY	19	35	13	37%	67.8	58.5%	0.68	7.3
robo	19	31	5	53%	60.6	44.7%	0.59	—
100 Thieves WIN
MVP dev1ce	44	19	10	20%	109.7	77.5%	1.70	—
poiii RIFLER	36	28	12	64%	87.7	72.5%	1.31	8.0
Ag1l	35	29	11	51%	95.0	66.7%	1.26	—
sirah RIFLER	25	27	6	52%	72.0	61.1%	0.96	7.9
rain	20	22	12	70%	69.3	62.9%	0.94	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
ex-RUBY
sh1nejezzz	16	15	3	69%	92.2	79.0%	1.26	7.8
relaxxie	17	14	3	65%	91.2	57.9%	1.17	—
YumsaN	15	17	8	53%	94.7	55.0%	1.00	7.9
H4SAN4TOR	11	17	7	27%	66.3	63.6%	0.79	7.3
robo	9	17	4	56%	64.2	45.0%	0.55	—
100 Thieves WIN
dev1ce	17	11	5	12%	85.2	75.0%	1.35	—
poiii	20	15	5	65%	91.2	68.2%	1.30	8.0
sirah	17	14	2	47%	86.2	60.0%	1.15	7.9
Ag1l	15	17	6	67%	94.3	63.2%	1.06	—
rain	12	14	5	67%	65.1	57.9%	0.87	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
ex-RUBY
relaxxie	16	15	4	50%	95.4	63.2%	1.16	—
sh1nejezzz	11	17	3	73%	75.9	52.9%	0.74	7.8
robo	10	14	1	50%	56.6	44.4%	0.64	—
H4SAN4TOR	8	18	6	50%	69.5	52.6%	0.56	7.3
YumsaN	5	12	6	40%	75.3	40.0%	0.50	7.9
100 Thieves WIN
dev1ce	27	8	5	26%	134.2	80.0%	2.05	—
Ag1l	20	12	5	40%	95.6	70.0%	1.45	—
poiii	16	13	7	63%	83.3	77.8%	1.32	8.0
rain	8	8	7	75%	74.4	68.8%	1.01	—
sirah	8	13	4	63%	54.3	62.5%	0.72	7.9

Teams

Players in this match

dev1ce poiii Ag1l relaxxie sh1nejezzz sirah rain YumsaN H4SAN4TOR robo