100 Thieves vs Phantom — CounterQuant

T2 BO3 CS2 2026-06-05

100 Thieves Winner

2 : 0

100 Thieves wins

Phantom

CQ GESUS

1 model →

CQ-GESUS-APEX v3 · Primary Prediction

100 Thieves 52% (prob 0.515)

Correct

100 Thieves Phantom

52% 48%

Shadow bet: 1.2u @ 1.950 → 1.1u

CQ-GESUS Suite — 12 Models

TITAN ORACLE NEXUS PHANTOM MIRAGE SPECTER CIPHER CLUTCH UTILITY PISTOL SYNERGY

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	100 Thieves	vs	Phantom	Edge
inferno	72% (18/25)		40% (2/5)	+32pp
dust2	73% (19/26)		46% (18/39)	+27pp
ancient	68% (15/22)		44% (14/32)	+24pp
overpass	67% (2/3)		44% (12/27)	+23pp
nuke	62% (15/24)		55% (33/60)	+7pp
anubis	40% (2/5)		33% (3/9)	+7pp
mirage	50% (7/14)		47% (20/43)	+3pp
vertigo	50% (5/10)	·	—

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

100 Thieves bans

anubis 40% WR

mirage 50% WR

Phantom bans

inferno 40% WR

ancient 44% WR

100 Thieves pick

dust2

61% — 100 Thieves favored

Decider

overpass

60% 100 Thieves

Decider

vertigo

Phantom pick

nuke

47% — Phantom favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

inferno

64%

36%

100 Thieves

dust2

61%

39%

100 Thieves

ancient

61%

39%

100 Thieves

overpass

60%

40%

100 Thieves

nuke

53%

47%

even

anubis

55%

45%

100 Thieves

mirage

52%

48%

even

100 Thieves on left · Phantom on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
100 Thieves WIN
MVP dev1ce	44	21	9	32%	103.3	75.0%	1.63	—
sirah RIFLER	37	27	9	49%	88.2	71.4%	1.31	7.9
poiii RIFLER	33	26	7	55%	90.0	69.2%	1.25	8.0
rain	32	29	10	56%	91.4	57.5%	1.10	—
Ag1l	17	23	5	53%	53.9	51.5%	0.70	—
Phantom
MVP KEi	24	32	10	42%	75.3	62.5%	0.88	—
Kylar RIFLER	26	32	8	42%	63.4	50.0%	0.79	6.3
Kunai	22	28	8	45%	54.6	59.0%	0.79	—
mwlky	22	30	8	27%	69.6	55.3%	0.79	—
TMB	24	36	13	46%	75.5	52.4%	0.75	—

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
100 Thieves WIN
dev1ce	25	11	4	24%	111.1	81.8%	1.75	—
sirah	22	15	4	45%	95.5	68.2%	1.38	7.9
rain	19	14	3	74%	101.1	47.6%	1.17	—
poiii	15	14	3	73%	88.9	70.0%	1.15	8.0
Ag1l	5	13	3	60%	34.4	47.1%	0.38	—
Phantom
mwlky	16	17	6	25%	91.1	68.2%	1.10	—
Kunai	14	15	4	64%	62.7	61.9%	0.93	—
KEi	12	17	2	50%	63.6	52.4%	0.72	—
TMB	11	17	6	55%	67.4	45.5%	0.66	—
Kylar	9	17	4	33%	56.0	42.1%	0.50	6.3

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
100 Thieves WIN
dev1ce	19	10	5	42%	93.7	66.7%	1.49	—
poiii	18	12	4	39%	91.1	68.4%	1.36	8.0
sirah	15	12	5	53%	80.3	75.0%	1.22	7.9
Ag1l	12	10	2	50%	74.8	56.3%	1.04	—
rain	13	15	7	31%	80.6	68.4%	1.03	—
Phantom
Kylar	17	15	4	47%	70.8	57.9%	1.08	6.3
KEi	12	15	8	33%	88.3	73.7%	1.05	—
TMB	13	19	7	38%	84.3	60.0%	0.86	—
Kunai	8	13	4	13%	45.1	55.6%	0.63	—
mwlky	6	13	2	33%	40.1	37.5%	0.37	—

Teams

Players in this match

dev1ce sirah poiii rain KEi Kylar Kunai mwlky TMB Ag1l