The original baseline model. Now retired.
About this Model
APEX was CounterQuant's first-generation match predictor, establishing the feature pipeline and calibration approach that ORACLE v2 now supersedes. APEX v3 introduced the team Elo feature family and rolling-window form tracking. Retired in favour of ORACLE v2 which uses 2× the features with improved calibration and stronger SoS modeling.
Performance Charts
Solid = cumulative; dashed = rolling-20 (shown after 5 predictions); gray = 50% baseline.
Bars = actual win rate per confidence bucket; dashed = perfect calibration.
Cumulative units of profit/loss across all shadow bets for this model.
Top Feature Drivers
Primary team quality signal
Recent form rolling window
Head-to-head history
Experience proxy
Venue adjustment
Feature importances reflect normalized split gain across the training set. Values are approximate — the model uses all features simultaneously.
How to Interpret
APEX is retired and its predictions are preserved in the ledger for historical backtesting only. Compare APEX accuracy vs ORACLE to see the improvement.
Per-Tier Breakdown
| Tier | Preds | Correct | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| T2 | 19 | 14 | 73.7% |
| T3 | 21 | 11 | 52.4% |
Monthly Performance
| Month | Preds | Correct | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | 45 | 27 | 60.0% |
Full Prediction History (45 settled)
| Date | Matchup | Tier | Predicted Winner | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9 | Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY | T3 | Ground Zero |
|
✓ |
| Jun 8 | HYPERSPIRIT vs INOX Division | T2 | INOX Division |
|
✓ |
| Jun 8 | Abyssal vs Ding Cuts | T3 | Abyssal |
|
✓ |
| Jun 8 | PsychoFace vs brazylijski luz | T2 | PsychoFace |
|
✗ |
| Jun 7 | Virtus.pro vs GenOne | T2 | Virtus.pro |
|
✓ |
| Jun 7 | ENCE vs brazylijski luz | T2 | ENCE |
|
✗ |
| Jun 7 | KOLESIE vs Lazer Cats | T2 | KOLESIE |
|
✓ |
| Jun 7 | Atreides vs HYPERSPIRIT | T2 | Atreides |
|
✗ |
| Jun 6 | Nuclear TigeRES vs AM | T3 | Nuclear TigeRES |
|
✓ |
| Jun 6 | OLDBOYS PL vs bankaPEPSI | T3 | bankaPEPSI |
|
✗ |
| Jun 6 | TDK vs Walczaki | T3 | TDK |
|
✓ |
| Jun 6 | ARCRED vs ASTRAL | T3 | ASTRAL |
|
✗ |
| Jun 6 | RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas | T2 | RUSTEC |
|
✗ |
| Jun 6 | Betclic vs INOX Division | T3 | INOX Division |
|
✓ |
| Jun 6 | G2 Ares vs aAa | T2 | G2 Ares |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC | T3 | RUSTEC |
|
✗ |
| Jun 5 | VP.Prodigy vs Clutchain | T3 | VP.Prodigy |
|
✗ |
| Jun 5 | eternal premium vs Project 91 | T3 | Project 91 |
|
✗ |
| Jun 5 | Fire Flux vs Arch | T3 | Arch |
|
✗ |
| Jun 5 | ZOTIX vs Banger Gang | T3 | Banger Gang |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | NRG vs BIG | T1 | NRG |
|
✗ |
| Jun 5 | GenOne vs BIG Academy | T2 | BIG Academy |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | QUAZAR vs ReThink | T3 | QUAZAR |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | DONSTU vs COPH9K | T3 | DONSTU |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | XI vs LFO 6 | T3 | LFO 6 |
|
✗ |
| Jun 5 | Misa vs JUMBO | T3 | Misa |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | 100 Thieves vs Phantom | T2 | 100 Thieves |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | aAa vs ex-Zero Tenacity | T2 | ex-Zero Tenacity |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | ENRAGE vs ROUNDS | T3 | ROUNDS |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | Liquid vs FlyQuest | T1 | Liquid |
|
✗ |
| Jun 5 | Bushido Wildcats vs ex-RUBY | T2 | ex-RUBY |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | SPARTA vs CYBERSHOKE | T3 | SPARTA |
|
✗ |
| Jun 5 | Oxuji vs Misa | T2 | Oxuji |
|
✗ |
| Jun 5 | Acend vs Ursa | T3 | Ursa |
|
✗ |
| Jun 5 | TYLOO vs Lynn Vision | T1 | TYLOO |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | 1win vs Betclic | T2 | 1win |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | Leo vs Lilmix | T2 | Leo |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | Lavked vs MANA | T2 | Lavked |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds | T2 | Johnny Speeds |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | KOLESIE vs Atreides | T3 | Atreides |
|
✓ |
| Jun 5 | Walczaki vs KOLESIE | T3 | KOLESIE |
|
✗ |
| Jun 5 | M80 vs NRG | T1 | NRG |
|
✗ |
| Jun 5 | Liquid vs HEROIC | T1 | Liquid |
|
✓ |
| Jun 4 | HYPERSPIRIT vs HEROIC Academy | T2 | HEROIC Academy |
|
✓ |
| Jun 4 | AM vs ex-RUBY | T2 | ex-RUBY |
|
✓ |
Live Performance
Calibration Quality
Brier score measures probability calibration (0=perfect, 0.25=random). Lower is better. A well-calibrated model's confidence matches actual win rates.
Data Coverage
Selector Role
Retired — ORACLE v2 is the successor.
Version History
Initial 45-feature baseline; AUC 0.670
Added map-pool features; minor AUC lift
Final iteration before ORACLE succession