K27 vs Acend — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395332

HLTV

T2 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-20 FINAL

K27

WINNER

2 : 0

SERIES COMPLETE

Acend

CHALLENGER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✓ CORRECT CALL

K27 65% Acend 35%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.380

PHANTOM +0.128

PHANTOM confidence -0.058

SHADOW BET 9.7u @ 1.596 → +5.8u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 K27 66%

✓

PHANTOM v2 K27 64%

✓

TITAN v2 K27 65%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

65%

K27

MODEL ODDS

0.65

BET ODDS

1.596

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

overpass 73% K27

dust2 68% K27

anubis 28% K27

ancient 66% K27

mirage 53% K27

nuke 46% K27

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

ancient 13 – 11 K27 took the map.

mirage 13 – 11 K27 took the map.

Side

K27 WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP xeedo RIFLER	52	36	17	54%	123.5	86.0%	1.63	8.5
X5G7V ENTRY	39	34	16	46%	89.4	72.0%	1.22	7.9
fame	33	32	13	55%	75.4	76.0%	1.11	—
kashl1d AWP	34	27	8	29%	65.7	72.0%	1.11	8.5
qw1nk1 RIFLER	25	34	15	52%	71.7	66.0%	0.87	8.4

Acend

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP h4rn AWP	45	37	12	24%	94.6	68.0%	1.27	7.7
SPELLAN ENTRY	28	37	24	57%	85.6	68.0%	0.97	6.2
REDSTAR RIFLER	31	34	10	71%	77.1	58.0%	0.93	7.2
KalubeR RIFLER	24	37	12	50%	68.5	68.0%	0.82	7.0
Skrimo RIFLER	27	36	9	44%	56.8	60.0%	0.78	6.9

K27 WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
xeedo	30	18	13	63%	154.8	88.0%	1.91	8.5
X5G7V	23	20	10	52%	105.5	76.0%	1.36	7.9
fame	15	16	8	53%	68.8	76.0%	1.05	—
qw1nk1	15	18	9	47%	74.2	76.0%	1.02	8.4
kashl1d	14	15	3	36%	53.8	60.0%	0.85	8.5

Acend

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
h4rn	23	20	10	22%	100.0	68.0%	1.29	7.7
SPELLAN	18	17	11	61%	97.5	64.0%	1.14	6.2
REDSTAR	17	17	6	65%	87.3	60.0%	1.03	7.2
KalubeR	11	19	5	36%	55.2	64.0%	0.70	7.0
Skrimo	12	20	4	50%	51.6	56.0%	0.64	6.9

K27 WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
kashl1d	20	12	5	25%	77.6	84.0%	1.38	8.5
xeedo	22	18	4	41%	92.3	84.0%	1.36	8.5
fame	18	16	5	56%	81.9	76.0%	1.18	—
X5G7V	16	14	6	38%	73.2	68.0%	1.07	7.9
qw1nk1	10	16	6	60%	69.2	56.0%	0.72	8.4

Acend

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
h4rn	22	17	2	27%	89.2	68.0%	1.25	7.7
KalubeR	13	18	7	62%	81.8	72.0%	0.94	7.0
Skrimo	15	16	5	40%	62.0	64.0%	0.93	6.9
REDSTAR	14	17	4	79%	67.0	56.0%	0.82	7.2
SPELLAN	10	20	13	50%	73.8	72.0%	0.79	6.2

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = K27 · Magenta = Acend. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

xeedo h4rn X5G7V fame kashl1d SPELLAN REDSTAR qw1nk1 KalubeR Skrimo