aimclub vs Noir Verse — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395314

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

aimclub

CHALLENGER

1 : 2

SERIES COMPLETE

Noir Verse

WINNER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✗ WRONG CALL

aimclub 58% Noir Verse 42%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.228

PHANTOM +0.106

PHANTOM confidence -0.054

SHADOW BET 5.5u @ 1.772 → -5.5u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 aimclub 66%

✗

PHANTOM v2 Noir Verse 52%

✓

TITAN v2 aimclub 58%

✗

NEXUS v2 aimclub 74%

✗

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

58%

aimclub

MODEL ODDS

0.58

BET ODDS

1.772

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

MAP POOL

nuke 25% aimclub

overpass 100% aimclub

mirage 42% aimclub

dust2 46% aimclub

ancient 54% aimclub

inferno 29% WR (7/24)

anubis 62% WR (5/8)

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

dust2 13 – 6 aimclub took the map.

mirage 6 – 13 Noir Verse took the map.

nuke 5 – 13 Noir Verse took the map.

Side

aimclub

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP XELLOW	56	36	6	59%	107.8	66.1%	1.42	—
zewts RIFLER	41	41	10	46%	80.6	64.3%	1.05	1.5
RoberttMP	34	44	17	65%	80.9	62.5%	0.91	—
waZz	27	40	15	70%	61.5	66.1%	0.80	—
ERSIN RIFLER	30	47	20	50%	65.2	62.5%	0.78	1.9

Noir Verse WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP Santuriano	43	35	21	53%	89.5	76.8%	1.28	—
kirxttu	43	36	19	56%	87.4	69.6%	1.20	—
naginat	44	39	16	68%	91.4	67.9%	1.19	—
fostar	41	42	19	59%	90.4	76.8%	1.18	—
xeNji	37	38	14	38%	77.0	69.6%	1.05	—

aimclub WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
zewts	22	10	5	36%	121.5	84.2%	1.81	1.5
XELLOW	16	8	3	25%	96.5	68.4%	1.39	—
waZz	11	9	6	82%	74.1	89.5%	1.23	—
ERSIN	13	11	8	46%	70.4	73.7%	1.15	1.9
RoberttMP	10	11	7	50%	68.4	63.2%	0.93	—

Noir Verse

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Santuriano	13	14	6	69%	96.7	68.4%	1.10	—
fostar	12	14	3	58%	79.9	63.2%	0.95	—
xeNji	10	16	5	50%	67.2	57.9%	0.73	—
naginat	7	15	3	71%	46.8	52.6%	0.51	—
kirxttu	7	14	2	57%	44.3	47.4%	0.49	—

aimclub

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
XELLOW	22	14	1	77%	122.0	57.9%	1.49	—
RoberttMP	11	18	6	55%	88.6	73.7%	0.91	—
zewts	10	17	3	60%	67.2	57.9%	0.69	1.5
ERSIN	10	19	6	60%	73.0	57.9%	0.67	1.9
waZz	9	15	4	44%	51.4	52.6%	0.62	—

Noir Verse WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
naginat	23	12	6	65%	129.0	84.2%	1.83	—
kirxttu	19	13	7	53%	114.2	73.7%	1.50	—
xeNji	16	11	3	38%	89.9	68.4%	1.28	—
Santuriano	13	12	8	46%	78.3	79.0%	1.19	—
fostar	12	14	9	58%	81.3	79.0%	1.10	—

aimclub

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
XELLOW	18	14	2	67%	104.6	72.2%	1.38	—
RoberttMP	13	15	4	85%	85.8	50.0%	0.90	—
zewts	9	14	2	56%	51.5	50.0%	0.62	1.5
waZz	7	16	5	86%	58.9	55.6%	0.55	—
ERSIN	7	17	6	43%	51.5	55.6%	0.50	1.9

Noir Verse WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
kirxttu	17	9	10	59%	104.5	88.9%	1.65	—
Santuriano	17	9	7	47%	93.7	83.3%	1.56	—
fostar	17	14	7	59%	111.2	88.9%	1.51	—
naginat	14	12	7	71%	98.8	66.7%	1.22	—
xeNji	11	11	6	27%	73.6	83.3%	1.14	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = aimclub · Magenta = Noir Verse. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

XELLOW Santuriano kirxttu naginat fostar xeNji zewts RoberttMP waZz ERSIN