6666 vs Alliance — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395312

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

6666

CHALLENGER

0 : 2

SERIES COMPLETE

Alliance

WINNER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✗ WRONG CALL

6666 59% Alliance 41%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.212

PHANTOM +0.135

PHANTOM confidence -0.054

SHADOW BET 7.1u @ 1.723 → -7.1u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 6666 54%

✗

PHANTOM v2 6666 64%

✗

TITAN v2 6666 59%

✗

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

59%

6666

MODEL ODDS

0.59

BET ODDS

1.723

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

MAP POOL

inferno 0% 6666

mirage 70% 6666

ancient 37% 6666

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

ancient 7 – 13 Alliance took the map.

inferno 4 – 13 Alliance took the map.

Side

6666

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP skcH	32	28	3	50%	90.1	62.2%	1.16	—
auth0ri	17	31	8	65%	68.3	56.8%	0.67	—
fix	18	30	6	67%	61.1	51.4%	0.64	—
m4d4ra666	14	28	11	86%	59.7	56.8%	0.62	—
rickangel	16	35	7	44%	55.7	51.4%	0.50	—

Alliance WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP bobeksde ENTRY	40	20	11	45%	120.4	86.5%	1.75	8.1
avid RIFLER	31	19	8	39%	90.5	86.5%	1.45	8.9
eraa	25	12	10	44%	75.9	89.2%	1.39	—
twist	29	24	17	59%	97.3	75.7%	1.30	—
upE RIFLER	25	22	10	80%	78.0	81.1%	1.20	8.8

6666

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
skcH	23	14	0	43%	106.1	65.0%	1.50	—
m4d4ra666	8	16	7	88%	67.5	60.0%	0.67	—
rickangel	10	19	6	50%	64.5	55.0%	0.63	—
auth0ri	6	16	6	83%	58.4	55.0%	0.51	—
fix	8	17	4	63%	60.3	40.0%	0.46	—

Alliance WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
eraa	14	6	8	57%	91.5	95.0%	1.53	—
avid	17	10	3	53%	89.7	90.0%	1.49	8.9
bobeksde	18	13	5	44%	99.7	80.0%	1.42	8.1
twist	17	13	7	76%	99.7	75.0%	1.35	—
upE	14	13	6	71%	80.0	90.0%	1.26	8.8

6666

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
auth0ri	11	15	2	55%	80.0	58.8%	0.85	—
fix	10	13	2	70%	62.2	64.7%	0.85	—
skcH	9	14	3	67%	71.4	58.8%	0.76	—
m4d4ra666	6	12	4	83%	50.7	52.9%	0.56	—
rickangel	6	16	1	33%	45.4	47.1%	0.36	—

Alliance WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
bobeksde	22	7	6	45%	144.7	94.1%	2.15	8.1
avid	14	9	5	21%	91.4	82.4%	1.41	8.9
twist	12	11	10	33%	94.5	76.5%	1.25	—
eraa	11	6	2	27%	57.5	82.4%	1.23	—
upE	11	9	4	91%	75.5	70.6%	1.12	8.8

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = 6666 · Magenta = Alliance. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

bobeksde avid eraa twist upE skcH auth0ri fix m4d4ra666 rickangel