aimclub vs PURE — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395310

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

aimclub

WINNER

2 : 0

SERIES COMPLETE

PURE

CHALLENGER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✗ WRONG CALL

aimclub 38% PURE 62%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean -0.287

Elo win prob +0.025

ORACLE -0.016

SHADOW BET 9.6u @ 1.660 → -9.6u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 PURE 62%

✗

PHANTOM v2 PURE 63%

✗

TITAN v2 PURE 62%

✗

NEXUS v2 PURE 68%

✗

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

38%

aimclub

MODEL ODDS

0.38

BET ODDS

1.660

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

ancient 28% aimclub

anubis 100% aimclub

inferno 100% aimclub

nuke 35% aimclub

dust2 63% aimclub

mirage 43% aimclub

overpass 40% WR (2/5)

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

inferno 13 – 9 aimclub took the map.

nuke 13 – 5 aimclub took the map.

Side

aimclub WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP XELLOW	47	23	8	32%	124.7	75.0%	1.74	—
waZz	27	24	11	70%	86.3	72.5%	1.16	—
RoberttMP	31	27	7	61%	88.0	65.0%	1.15	—
zewts RIFLER	24	26	12	63%	70.9	75.0%	1.04	1.5
ERSIN RIFLER	21	26	15	52%	71.0	82.5%	1.04	1.9

PURE

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP MAGILA RIFLER	30	31	5	57%	83.6	57.5%	1.00	4.5
maty ENTRY	30	34	6	77%	81.5	55.0%	0.93	4.4
yakuza RIFLER	24	30	4	67%	70.5	60.0%	0.85	5.4
Sh1karee	21	29	3	57%	63.5	60.0%	0.78	—
toshas	20	26	6	80%	64.2	55.0%	0.77	—

aimclub WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
XELLOW	27	14	3	33%	132.5	68.2%	1.72	—
waZz	15	14	7	80%	88.1	72.7%	1.16	—
ERSIN	11	15	9	55%	70.5	86.4%	1.03	1.9
zewts	12	16	6	67%	70.1	81.8%	0.99	1.5
RoberttMP	12	16	3	58%	64.1	50.0%	0.73	—

PURE

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
toshas	17	12	4	82%	91.9	72.7%	1.28	—
Yakuza	15	15	3	60%	75.9	72.7%	1.08	5.4
MAGILA	16	17	4	38%	85.1	63.6%	1.03	4.5
maty0	15	19	5	73%	76.2	59.1%	0.89	4.4
Sh1karee	11	14	2	73%	59.3	63.6%	0.82	—

aimclub WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
XELLOW	20	9	5	30%	115.2	83.3%	1.76	—
RoberttMP	19	11	4	63%	117.1	83.3%	1.65	—
waZz	12	10	4	58%	84.0	72.2%	1.16	—
zewts	12	10	6	58%	71.8	66.7%	1.09	1.5
ERSIN	10	11	6	50%	71.7	77.8%	1.05	1.9

PURE

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
maty0	15	15	1	80%	87.9	50.0%	0.99	4.4
MAGILA	14	14	1	79%	81.7	50.0%	0.95	4.5
Sh1karee	10	15	1	40%	68.6	55.6%	0.73	—
Yakuza	9	15	1	78%	63.8	44.4%	0.58	5.4
toshas	3	14	2	67%	30.4	33.3%	0.14	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = aimclub · Magenta = PURE. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

XELLOW waZz RoberttMP zewts ERSIN MAGILA maty yakuza Sh1karee toshas