fnatic vs BASEMENT BOYS

MATCHES / #2395309

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

fnatic

WINNER

2 : 0

SERIES COMPLETE

BASEMENT BOYS

CHALLENGER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✗ WRONG CALL

fnatic 44% BASEMENT BOYS 56%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean -0.298

PHANTOM +0.153

Elo win prob +0.036

SHADOW BET 4.6u @ 1.801 → -4.6u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 BASEMENT BOYS 64%

✗

PHANTOM v2 fnatic 51%

✓

TITAN v2 BASEMENT BOYS 56%

✗

NEXUS v2 fnatic 55%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

44%

fnatic

MODEL ODDS

0.44

BET ODDS

1.801

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

MAP POOL

nuke 83% fnatic

inferno 33% fnatic

dust2 57% fnatic

anubis 57% fnatic

ancient 43% fnatic

mirage 53% fnatic

overpass 0% WR (0/3)

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

anubis 13 – 5 fnatic took the map.

inferno 13 – 5 fnatic took the map.

Side

fnatic WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP jackasmo RIFLER	35	16	5	66%	110.0	77.8%	1.60	8.0
jambo0	29	15	6	52%	84.7	75.0%	1.37	—
fear10	26	23	13	42%	89.2	80.6%	1.26	—
Polbandana RIFLER	24	15	8	46%	73.8	75.0%	1.22	7.1
Br4tkO	23	23	10	78%	79.7	72.2%	1.08	—

BASEMENT BOYS

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP OWNER	22	29	5	41%	73.8	58.3%	0.84	—
Maggent	19	27	6	58%	70.8	63.9%	0.83	—
kr1vda	20	26	2	50%	67.0	61.1%	0.82	—
Tr0ublE AWP	21	28	5	29%	65.5	52.8%	0.76	4.3
fakerealityy	10	27	12	20%	49.7	52.8%	0.48	—

fnatic WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
jackasmo	19	8	4	68%	117.4	77.8%	1.70	8.0
fear10	15	9	5	47%	94.6	88.9%	1.49	—
Polbandana	12	7	6	42%	73.3	83.3%	1.31	7.1
Br4tkO	13	12	5	69%	85.5	83.3%	1.24	—
jambo0	12	8	2	50%	78.4	72.2%	1.19	—

BASEMENT BOYS

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Tr0ublE	11	13	2	45%	72.5	55.6%	0.85	4.3
OWNER	10	15	2	40%	69.8	50.0%	0.70	—
kr1vda	9	13	1	56%	61.9	50.0%	0.68	—
Maggent	7	15	3	57%	64.4	55.6%	0.58	—
fakerealityy	7	15	4	29%	57.8	50.0%	0.53	—

fnatic WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
jambo0	17	7	4	53%	90.9	77.8%	1.55	—
jackasmo	16	8	1	63%	102.5	77.8%	1.49	8.0
Polbandana	12	8	2	50%	74.2	66.7%	1.14	7.1
fear10	11	14	8	36%	83.8	72.2%	1.02	—
Br4tkO	10	11	5	90%	73.8	61.1%	0.93	—

BASEMENT BOYS

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Maggent	12	12	3	58%	77.2	72.2%	1.07	—
OWNER	12	14	3	42%	77.7	66.7%	0.98	—
kr1vda	11	13	1	45%	72.1	72.2%	0.97	—
Tr0ublE	10	15	3	10%	58.4	50.0%	0.67	4.3
fakerealityy	3	12	8	0%	41.6	55.6%	0.43	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = fnatic · Magenta = BASEMENT BOYS. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

jackasmo jambo0 fear10 Polbandana Br4tkO OWNER Maggent kr1vda Tr0ublE fakerealityy