Nexus vs Metizport — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395308

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

Nexus

CHALLENGER

0 : 2

SERIES COMPLETE

Metizport

WINNER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✗ WRONG CALL

Nexus 59% Metizport 41%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.213

PHANTOM +0.134

PHANTOM confidence -0.054

SHADOW BET 7.2u @ 1.723 → -7.2u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 Nexus 54%

✗

PHANTOM v2 Nexus 64%

✗

TITAN v2 Nexus 59%

✗

NEXUS v2 Nexus 58%

✗

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

59%

Nexus

MODEL ODDS

0.59

BET ODDS

1.723

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

ancient 0% Nexus

nuke 0% Nexus

inferno 31% Nexus

overpass 62% Nexus

mirage 57% Nexus

dust2 48% Nexus

anubis 51% Nexus

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

inferno 3 – 13 Metizport took the map.

overpass 0 – 13 Metizport took the map.

Side

Nexus

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP Nexius	17	26	6	71%	68.7	51.7%	0.71	—
shield	16	23	3	50%	60.8	48.3%	0.67	—
fNk	11	26	8	64%	60.8	41.4%	0.44	—
s0und	12	26	3	75%	55.9	34.5%	0.38	—
SBT	9	27	4	78%	45.6	48.3%	0.35	—

Metizport WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP F1KU RIFLER	30	16	10	63%	112.1	82.8%	1.66	7.8
forsyy	25	10	4	44%	99.3	89.7%	1.61	—
isak RIFLER	28	12	9	50%	97.1	79.3%	1.60	6.1
Plopski RIFLER	28	16	12	57%	111.4	79.3%	1.58	6.4
stanislaw RIFLER	19	14	11	42%	68.5	89.7%	1.28	6.2

Nexus

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Nexius	13	13	3	69%	94.8	68.8%	1.15	—
shield	9	11	3	22%	64.6	50.0%	0.77	—
SBT	7	15	3	71%	60.1	62.5%	0.61	—
s0und	8	14	3	75%	72.6	43.8%	0.60	—
fNk	6	13	3	33%	63.0	43.8%	0.49	—

Metizport WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
F1KU	20	11	6	65%	131.2	81.3%	1.83	7.8
plopski	15	11	8	60%	107.2	75.0%	1.45	6.4
isak	15	8	1	47%	79.6	62.5%	1.32	6.1
forsyy	9	7	3	44%	72.4	81.3%	1.16	—
stanislaw	9	9	8	33%	64.1	87.5%	1.14	6.2

Nexus

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
shield	7	12	0	86%	56.1	46.2%	0.55	—
fNk	5	13	5	100%	58.0	38.5%	0.37	—
Nexius	4	13	3	75%	36.7	30.8%	0.16	—
s0und	4	12	0	75%	35.5	23.1%	0.12	—
SBT	2	12	1	100%	27.8	30.8%	0.02	—

Metizport WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
forsyy	16	3	1	44%	132.4	100.0%	2.16	—
isak	13	4	8	54%	118.6	100.0%	1.93	6.1
plopski	13	5	4	54%	116.6	84.6%	1.74	6.4
stanislaw	10	5	3	50%	74.0	92.3%	1.46	6.2
F1KU	10	5	4	60%	88.7	84.6%	1.45	7.8

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = Nexus · Magenta = Metizport. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

F1KU forsyy isak Plopski stanislaw Nexius shield fNk s0und SBT