SAAB vs PURE — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395304

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

SAAB

CHALLENGER

0 : 2

SERIES COMPLETE

PURE

WINNER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✓ CORRECT CALL

SAAB 28% PURE 72%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean -0.396

PHANTOM -0.220

Elo win prob +0.030

SHADOW BET 12.8u @ 1.453 → +5.8u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 PURE 62%

✓

PHANTOM v2 PURE 79%

✓

TITAN v2 PURE 72%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

28%

SAAB

MODEL ODDS

0.28

BET ODDS

1.453

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

MAP POOL

nuke 0% SAAB

mirage 0% SAAB

inferno 0% WR (0/1)

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

mirage 2 – 13 PURE took the map.

nuke 2 – 13 PURE took the map.

Side

SAAB

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP Calley	18	27	3	61%	72.5	60.0%	0.78	—
ws	15	28	1	67%	63.3	40.0%	0.49	—
Hydrax	13	29	5	77%	58.3	43.3%	0.44	—
bongo	10	27	2	60%	45.2	36.7%	0.29	—
MARNILOO	10	28	2	60%	40.7	30.0%	0.21	—

PURE WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP maty ENTRY	34	15	7	82%	124.4	83.3%	1.80	4.4
Sh1karee	29	10	5	45%	99.3	83.3%	1.66	—
MAGILA RIFLER	28	15	14	46%	118.0	80.0%	1.61	4.5
yakuza RIFLER	27	15	5	70%	87.8	83.3%	1.48	5.4
toshas	23	13	5	83%	85.4	90.0%	1.44	—

SAAB

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Hydrax	8	14	1	75%	55.1	53.3%	0.60	—
MARNILOO	7	13	2	57%	53.3	40.0%	0.48	—
Calley	6	13	1	67%	57.2	46.7%	0.48	—
ws	6	14	1	83%	48.9	40.0%	0.37	—
bongo	4	14	1	75%	44.2	26.7%	0.14	—

PURE WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
maty0	21	8	3	81%	159.1	80.0%	2.10	4.4
Sh1karee	18	4	4	44%	119.3	93.3%	2.05	—
MAGILA	10	7	10	30%	95.1	80.0%	1.34	4.5
toshas	8	5	3	63%	64.5	100.0%	1.30	—
Yakuza	11	7	3	55%	72.6	80.0%	1.28	5.4

SAAB

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Calley	12	14	2	58%	87.9	73.3%	1.09	—
ws	9	14	0	56%	77.8	40.0%	0.62	—
bongo	6	13	1	50%	46.3	46.7%	0.44	—
Hydrax	5	15	4	80%	61.5	33.3%	0.28	—
MARNILOO	3	15	0	67%	28.1	20.0%	0.00	—

PURE WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MAGILA	18	8	4	56%	140.9	80.0%	1.88	4.5
Yakuza	16	8	2	81%	103.1	86.7%	1.68	5.4
toshas	15	8	2	93%	106.3	80.0%	1.58	—
maty0	13	7	4	85%	89.7	86.7%	1.51	4.4
Sh1karee	11	6	1	45%	79.3	73.3%	1.28	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = SAAB · Magenta = PURE. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

maty Sh1karee MAGILA yakuza toshas Calley ws Hydrax bongo MARNILOO