fnatic vs aimclub — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395302

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

fnatic

WINNER

2 : 0

SERIES COMPLETE

aimclub

CHALLENGER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✓ CORRECT CALL

fnatic 67% aimclub 33%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.367

PHANTOM +0.134

Elo win prob +0.125

SHADOW BET 12.9u @ 1.552 → +7.1u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 fnatic 66%

✓

PHANTOM v2 fnatic 64%

✓

TITAN v2 fnatic 67%

✓

NEXUS v2 fnatic 66%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

67%

fnatic

MODEL ODDS

0.67

BET ODDS

1.552

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

nuke 75% fnatic

overpass 0% fnatic

dust2 61% fnatic

mirage 57% fnatic

ancient 40% fnatic

anubis 52% fnatic

inferno 46% fnatic

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

dust2 13 – 10 fnatic took the map.

mirage 13 – 11 fnatic took the map.

Side

fnatic WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP jambo0	43	33	13	30%	109.7	68.1%	1.35	—
jackasmo RIFLER	37	28	11	57%	104.5	74.5%	1.33	8.0
fear10	37	34	15	65%	99.4	78.7%	1.28	—
Polbandana RIFLER	30	29	7	43%	67.0	72.3%	1.04	7.1
Br4tkO	23	31	10	70%	59.0	61.7%	0.79	—

aimclub

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP XELLOW	35	36	10	51%	83.4	70.2%	1.10	—
ERSIN RIFLER	37	33	7	46%	80.1	55.3%	1.04	1.9
zewts RIFLER	28	31	12	39%	79.2	61.7%	0.95	1.5
RoberttMP	28	38	11	61%	77.3	63.8%	0.88	—
waZz	26	35	11	54%	73.2	59.6%	0.84	—

fnatic WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
jambo0	24	15	6	21%	120.6	69.6%	1.54	—
fear10	22	16	7	59%	109.7	73.9%	1.44	—
Polbandana	18	14	3	44%	81.9	60.9%	1.13	7.1
jackasmo	12	15	7	50%	89.7	60.9%	0.93	8.0
Br4tkO	8	14	6	88%	50.5	65.2%	0.70	—

aimclub

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
ERSIN	24	15	4	42%	91.9	60.9%	1.37	1.9
XELLOW	17	17	4	59%	81.1	69.6%	1.09	—
zewts	15	17	7	40%	88.5	60.9%	0.99	1.5
waZz	9	19	7	56%	69.7	56.5%	0.63	—
RoberttMP	8	18	8	75%	58.8	56.5%	0.58	—

fnatic WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
jackasmo	25	13	4	60%	118.8	87.5%	1.71	8.0
jambo0	19	18	7	42%	99.2	66.7%	1.18	—
fear10	15	18	8	73%	89.5	83.3%	1.13	—
Polbandana	12	15	4	42%	52.6	83.3%	0.95	7.1
Br4tkO	15	17	4	60%	67.0	58.3%	0.88	—

aimclub

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
RoberttMP	20	20	3	55%	95.1	70.8%	1.17	—
XELLOW	18	19	6	44%	85.6	70.8%	1.10	—
waZz	17	16	4	53%	76.5	62.5%	1.04	—
zewts	13	14	5	38%	70.2	62.5%	0.92	1.5
ERSIN	13	18	3	54%	68.8	50.0%	0.73	1.9

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = fnatic · Magenta = aimclub. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

jambo0 jackasmo fear10 XELLOW ERSIN Polbandana zewts RoberttMP waZz Br4tkO