Alliance vs Nexus — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395300

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

Alliance

CHALLENGER

1 : 2

SERIES COMPLETE

Nexus

WINNER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✗ WRONG CALL

Alliance 66% Nexus 34%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.408

PHANTOM +0.126

PHANTOM confidence -0.058

SHADOW BET 12.9u @ 1.577 → -12.9u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 Alliance 76%

✗

PHANTOM v2 Alliance 64%

✗

TITAN v2 Alliance 66%

✗

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

66%

Alliance

MODEL ODDS

0.66

BET ODDS

1.577

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

ancient 100% Alliance

nuke 100% Alliance

inferno 73% Alliance

mirage 36% Alliance

overpass 41% Alliance

dust2 59% Alliance

anubis 53% Alliance

vertigo 37% WR (14/38)

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

anubis 9 – 13 Nexus took the map.

inferno 13 – 9 Alliance took the map.

overpass 11 – 13 Nexus took the map.

Side

Alliance

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP twist	56	46	15	45%	89.9	77.9%	1.29	—
eraa	48	43	21	40%	86.2	72.1%	1.17	—
avid RIFLER	49	47	10	57%	85.7	67.7%	1.10	8.9
bobeksde ENTRY	39	52	20	64%	73.9	63.2%	0.88	8.1
upE RIFLER	36	50	11	47%	64.1	63.2%	0.81	8.8

Nexus WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP s0und	63	44	9	71%	101.0	69.1%	1.36	—
shield	49	35	11	31%	80.1	73.5%	1.22	—
fNk	46	53	23	59%	87.3	66.2%	1.03	—
SBT	40	44	17	55%	74.8	67.7%	0.98	—
Nexius	39	55	19	54%	71.7	51.5%	0.76	—

Alliance

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
twist	17	15	3	41%	84.9	77.3%	1.22	—
avid	16	17	5	69%	92.1	72.7%	1.13	8.9
bobeksde	14	19	5	57%	77.1	68.2%	0.92	8.1
eraa	13	17	6	54%	75.6	63.6%	0.89	—
upE	11	17	3	36%	52.3	54.6%	0.66	8.8

Nexus WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
shield	22	8	4	14%	99.9	86.4%	1.70	—
s0und	24	14	3	71%	114.9	86.4%	1.68	—
fNk	16	17	8	50%	89.4	72.7%	1.13	—
SBT	15	15	6	53%	85.7	72.7%	1.12	—
Nexius	8	18	10	63%	65.8	54.6%	0.59	—

Alliance WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
eraa	20	9	7	35%	98.5	86.4%	1.61	—
avid	19	14	3	42%	96.4	68.2%	1.29	8.9
twist	17	16	7	47%	89.8	81.8%	1.26	—
bobeksde	15	15	12	53%	89.1	68.2%	1.12	8.1
upE	12	16	5	50%	73.1	72.7%	0.93	8.8

Nexus

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
fNk	15	17	7	73%	93.6	59.1%	1.00	—
Nexius	19	19	2	58%	86.3	50.0%	1.00	—
SBT	13	16	8	69%	80.3	63.6%	0.94	—
shield	11	15	3	45%	68.5	54.6%	0.76	—
s0und	12	18	2	92%	64.8	45.5%	0.65	—

Alliance

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
twist	22	15	5	45%	94.6	75.0%	1.39	—
eraa	15	17	8	33%	84.8	66.7%	1.02	—
avid	14	16	2	64%	70.0	62.5%	0.90	8.9
upE	13	17	3	54%	66.5	62.5%	0.83	8.8
bobeksde	10	18	3	90%	57.1	54.2%	0.61	8.1

Nexus WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
s0und	27	12	4	63%	121.5	75.0%	1.72	—
shield	16	12	4	44%	72.5	79.2%	1.20	—
fNk	15	19	8	53%	79.6	66.7%	0.95	—
SBT	12	13	3	42%	59.8	66.7%	0.90	—
Nexius	12	18	7	42%	63.7	50.0%	0.69	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = Alliance · Magenta = Nexus. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

s0und twist shield eraa avid fNk SBT bobeksde upE Nexius