fnatic vs Minkens finest

MATCHES / #2395296

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

fnatic

WINNER

2 : 0

SERIES COMPLETE

Minkens finest

CHALLENGER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✓ CORRECT CALL

fnatic 57% Minkens finest 43%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.147

PHANTOM +0.101

Elo win prob +0.038

SHADOW BET 4.2u @ 1.793 → +3.3u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 Minkens finest 50%

✗

PHANTOM v2 fnatic 51%

✓

TITAN v2 fnatic 57%

✓

NEXUS v2 fnatic 81%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

57%

fnatic

MODEL ODDS

0.57

BET ODDS

1.793

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

MAP POOL

anubis 100% fnatic

mirage 100% fnatic

ancient 100% fnatic

nuke 100% WR (1/1)

inferno 25% WR (1/4)

dust2 67% WR (2/3)

overpass 0% WR (0/3)

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

anubis 13 – 2 fnatic took the map.

mirage 13 – 3 fnatic took the map.

Side

fnatic WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP jackasmo RIFLER	36	14	7	56%	124.1	87.1%	1.88	8.0
Polbandana RIFLER	29	10	11	55%	114.1	90.3%	1.76	7.1
fear10	30	12	10	40%	102.0	90.3%	1.71	—
jambo0	26	10	12	42%	95.4	90.3%	1.62	—
Br4tkO	25	14	11	52%	93.7	83.9%	1.47	—

Minkens finest

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP pupcake	19	29	5	63%	81.0	45.2%	0.70	—
1minken	11	30	3	55%	55.4	41.9%	0.35	—
bango	13	29	2	62%	56.6	29.0%	0.33	—
wallino	10	31	7	60%	47.2	45.2%	0.31	—
Wilsjo	8	28	3	38%	44.6	35.5%	0.22	—

fnatic WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
jackasmo	23	8	2	61%	153.7	80.0%	2.19	8.0
Polbandana	16	4	6	56%	129.5	93.3%	1.98	7.1
fear10	14	4	3	50%	99.9	93.3%	1.75	—
Br4tkO	10	4	4	60%	78.7	80.0%	1.36	—
jambo0	8	5	8	63%	69.2	86.7%	1.25	—

Minkens finest

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
pupcake	8	14	1	75%	59.8	40.0%	0.52	—
1minken	6	15	2	33%	60.5	53.3%	0.47	—
wallino	5	15	3	60%	44.5	46.7%	0.32	—
bango	4	15	2	75%	51.5	33.3%	0.18	—
Wilsjo	3	13	1	33%	35.9	26.7%	0.09	—

fnatic WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
jambo0	18	5	4	33%	119.9	93.8%	1.96	—
fear10	16	8	7	31%	104.0	87.5%	1.67	—
jackasmo	13	6	5	46%	96.3	93.8%	1.59	8.0
Br4tkO	15	10	7	47%	107.7	87.5%	1.57	—
Polbandana	13	6	5	54%	99.8	87.5%	1.55	7.1

Minkens finest

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
pupcake	11	15	4	55%	100.9	50.0%	0.87	—
bango	9	14	0	56%	61.3	25.0%	0.46	—
Wilsjo	5	15	2	40%	52.8	43.8%	0.33	—
wallino	5	16	4	60%	49.6	43.8%	0.30	—
1minken	5	15	1	80%	50.7	31.3%	0.23	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = fnatic · Magenta = Minkens finest. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

jackasmo Polbandana fear10 jambo0 Br4tkO pupcake 1minken bango wallino Wilsjo