PURE vs Nexus — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395293

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

PURE

CHALLENGER

1 : 2

SERIES COMPLETE

Nexus

WINNER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✗ WRONG CALL

PURE 57% Nexus 43%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.150

PHANTOM +0.101

Elo win prob +0.034

SHADOW BET 4.5u @ 1.793 → -4.5u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 PURE 53%

✗

PHANTOM v2 Nexus 55%

✓

TITAN v2 PURE 57%

✗

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

57%

PURE

MODEL ODDS

0.57

BET ODDS

1.793

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

ancient 100% PURE

nuke 100% PURE

anubis 0% PURE

inferno 0% PURE

mirage 43% PURE

dust2 43% PURE

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

anubis 4 – 13 Nexus took the map.

inferno 11 – 13 Nexus took the map.

mirage 16 – 12 PURE took the map.

Side

PURE

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP maty ENTRY	56	53	19	73%	96.0	69.0%	1.18	4.4
yakuza RIFLER	49	43	7	63%	72.7	64.8%	1.05	5.4
toshas	39	46	8	46%	58.0	67.6%	0.88	—
Sh1karee	38	45	4	32%	57.0	59.2%	0.81	—
MAGILA RIFLER	37	55	12	49%	63.5	54.9%	0.72	4.5

Nexus WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP shield	61	36	11	31%	90.3	84.5%	1.46	—
SBT	49	46	21	43%	79.9	69.0%	1.10	—
s0und	45	43	11	76%	66.4	67.6%	1.01	—
Nexius	44	47	13	66%	71.3	62.0%	0.94	—
fNk	42	50	11	48%	70.8	60.6%	0.88	—

PURE

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Yakuza	15	10	1	60%	90.5	64.7%	1.28	5.4
Sh1karee	7	12	2	29%	56.6	64.7%	0.71	—
toshas	9	13	1	67%	57.9	52.9%	0.69	—
maty0	5	16	8	80%	70.7	58.8%	0.52	4.4
MAGILA	5	13	1	100%	39.4	35.3%	0.30	4.5

Nexus WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
shield	15	6	9	33%	99.5	82.4%	1.61	—
fNk	15	10	3	53%	100.9	76.5%	1.41	—
SBT	12	9	5	42%	85.7	70.6%	1.21	—
s0und	12	8	0	58%	65.9	76.5%	1.19	—
Nexius	11	10	6	82%	87.9	70.6%	1.14	—

PURE

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Yakuza	17	13	1	76%	74.9	70.8%	1.15	5.4
maty0	17	18	5	76%	87.4	70.8%	1.09	4.4
Sh1karee	15	14	2	60%	66.2	66.7%	1.00	—
toshas	9	16	3	33%	51.0	62.5%	0.66	—
MAGILA	9	21	6	33%	56.0	45.8%	0.46	4.5

Nexus WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
SBT	24	14	9	50%	110.3	87.5%	1.64	—
shield	19	11	1	32%	82.6	87.5%	1.41	—
Nexius	13	14	5	62%	65.6	62.5%	0.91	—
s0und	12	15	6	92%	65.9	66.7%	0.88	—
fNk	14	16	4	43%	70.5	58.3%	0.88	—

PURE WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
maty0	34	19	6	71%	117.3	73.3%	1.63	4.4
MAGILA	23	21	5	43%	83.2	73.3%	1.17	4.5
toshas	21	17	4	43%	63.5	80.0%	1.17	—
Yakuza	17	20	5	53%	60.8	60.0%	0.85	5.4
Sh1karee	16	19	0	6%	49.8	50.0%	0.71	—

Nexus

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
shield	27	19	1	30%	91.2	83.3%	1.41	—
s0und	21	20	5	76%	67.1	63.3%	1.01	—
Nexius	20	23	2	60%	66.5	56.7%	0.86	—
SBT	13	23	7	31%	52.4	53.3%	0.61	—
fNk	13	24	4	46%	53.9	53.3%	0.59	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = PURE · Magenta = Nexus. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

shield maty SBT yakuza s0und Nexius toshas fNk Sh1karee MAGILA