Alliance vs SAAB — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395292

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

Alliance

WINNER

2 : 0

SERIES COMPLETE

SAAB

CHALLENGER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✓ CORRECT CALL

Alliance 66% SAAB 34%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.408

PHANTOM +0.126

PHANTOM confidence -0.058

SHADOW BET 11.4u @ 1.577 → +6.6u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 Alliance 76%

✓

PHANTOM v2 Alliance 64%

✓

TITAN v2 Alliance 66%

✓

NEXUS v2 Alliance 89%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

66%

Alliance

MODEL ODDS

0.66

BET ODDS

1.577

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

MAP POOL

inferno 100% Alliance

nuke 100% Alliance

mirage 100% Alliance

ancient 56% WR (75/135)

dust2 48% WR (42/87)

anubis 57% WR (55/97)

overpass 53% WR (32/60)

vertigo 37% WR (14/38)

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

inferno 13 – 1 Alliance took the map.

nuke 13 – 1 Alliance took the map.

Side

Alliance WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP eraa	35	6	6	34%	122.5	96.4%	2.15	—
twist	28	8	10	68%	108.4	92.9%	1.83	—
upE RIFLER	26	8	9	69%	104.4	89.3%	1.73	8.8
avid RIFLER	24	6	8	54%	93.4	92.9%	1.69	8.9
bobeksde ENTRY	25	13	12	64%	112.3	75.0%	1.54	8.1

SAAB

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP Hydrax	11	27	2	55%	51.3	35.7%	0.32	—
ws	9	28	2	44%	50.3	32.1%	0.21	—
bongo	9	27	0	67%	35.3	25.0%	0.12	—
MARNILOO	6	27	4	83%	32.7	25.0%	0.03	—
Calley	4	28	3	50%	34.9	21.4%	0.00	—

Alliance WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
eraa	17	4	4	29%	119.3	92.9%	2.05	—
twist	15	3	7	53%	117.8	100.0%	2.03	—
avid	14	3	5	43%	98.9	92.9%	1.84	8.9
bobeksde	13	5	8	54%	123.8	85.7%	1.75	8.1
upE	10	4	6	70%	94.4	85.7%	1.50	8.8

SAAB

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
bongo	7	14	0	57%	51.2	28.6%	0.33	—
MARNILOO	4	13	1	75%	36.0	28.6%	0.14	—
Hydrax	4	14	2	75%	41.7	28.6%	0.13	—
ws	2	14	2	0%	44.0	21.4%	0.00	—
Calley	2	14	1	100%	31.5	21.4%	0.00	—

Alliance WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
eraa	18	2	2	39%	125.8	100.0%	2.24	—
upE	16	4	3	69%	114.4	92.9%	1.96	8.8
twist	13	5	3	85%	98.9	85.7%	1.64	—
avid	10	3	3	70%	88.0	92.9%	1.55	8.9
bobeksde	12	8	4	75%	100.7	64.3%	1.32	8.1

SAAB

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Hydrax	7	13	0	43%	60.9	42.9%	0.51	—
ws	7	14	0	57%	56.5	42.9%	0.45	—
bongo	2	13	0	100%	19.3	21.4%	0.00	—
MARNILOO	2	14	3	100%	29.4	21.4%	0.00	—
Calley	2	14	2	0%	38.2	21.4%	0.00	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = Alliance · Magenta = SAAB. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

eraa twist upE avid bobeksde Hydrax ws bongo MARNILOO Calley