MATCHES / #2395290
HLTV
T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-14 FINAL
Marsborne
Marsborne
WINNER
2 : 0
SERIES COMPLETE
Iowa Stormboar
Iowa Stormboar
CHALLENGER

Prediction breakdown

✓ CORRECT CALL
Marsborne 57% Iowa Stormboar 43%
WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)
Ensemble mean +0.147
PHANTOM +0.100
Elo win prob +0.038
SHADOW BET 4.1u @ 1.793 → +3.2u half-Kelly sizing · paper only
ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS
ORACLE v2 Iowa Stormboar 50%
PHANTOM v2 Marsborne 51%
TITAN v2 Marsborne 57%
NEXUS v2 Marsborne 77%

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

57%
Marsborne
MODEL ODDS
0.57
BET ODDS
1.793

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM
mirage 69% Marsborne
anubis 58% Marsborne
nuke 46% Marsborne
dust2 58% Marsborne
ancient 46% Marsborne
inferno 72% WR (61/85)
overpass 45% WR (13/29)
Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.
PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS
anubis 13 – 9 Marsborne took the map.
dust2 13 – 9 Marsborne took the map.

No Demo Data

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