MATCHES / #2395287
HLTV
T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-14 FINAL
Marsborne
Marsborne
WINNER
2 : 1
SERIES COMPLETE
Festina Lente
Festina Lente
CHALLENGER

Prediction breakdown

✗ WRONG CALL
Marsborne 38% Festina Lente 62%
WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)
Ensemble mean -0.286
Elo win prob +0.027
ORACLE -0.017
SHADOW BET 9.8u @ 1.663 → -9.8u half-Kelly sizing · paper only
ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS
ORACLE v2 Festina Lente 50%
PHANTOM v2 Festina Lente 63%
TITAN v2 Festina Lente 62%
NEXUS v2 Marsborne 50%

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

38%
Marsborne
MODEL ODDS
0.38
BET ODDS
1.663

Veto simulation & map probabilities

MAP POOL
ancient 100% Marsborne
dust2 31% Marsborne
overpass 31% Marsborne
mirage 42% Marsborne
anubis 58% Marsborne
nuke 48% Marsborne
inferno 72% WR (61/85)
Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.
PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS
ancient 13 – 9 Marsborne took the map.
anubis 13 – 9 Marsborne took the map.
overpass 10 – 13 Festina Lente took the map.

No Demo Data

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