DETONATE vs Wanted Goons

MATCHES / #2395285

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

DETONATE

WINNER

2 : 0

SERIES COMPLETE

Wanted Goons

CHALLENGER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✗ WRONG CALL

DETONATE 44% Wanted Goons 56%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean -0.299

PHANTOM +0.155

Elo win prob +0.038

SHADOW BET 4.7u @ 1.801 → -4.7u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 Wanted Goons 62%

✗

PHANTOM v2 Wanted Goons 55%

✗

TITAN v2 Wanted Goons 56%

✗

NEXUS v2 Wanted Goons 63%

✗

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

44%

DETONATE

MODEL ODDS

0.44

BET ODDS

1.801

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

MAP POOL

mirage 72% DETONATE

ancient 72% DETONATE

dust2 0% DETONATE

nuke 54% DETONATE

anubis 53% DETONATE

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

ancient 16 – 14 DETONATE took the map.

anubis 13 – 9 DETONATE took the map.

Side

DETONATE WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP ziddy	41	34	12	51%	84.6	70.4%	1.19	—
carn	46	40	14	43%	93.9	63.0%	1.19	—
tatm	38	32	16	55%	86.7	72.2%	1.19	—
duhpe	40	40	10	38%	80.5	67.9%	1.08	—
Feral	31	42	14	39%	80.1	66.7%	0.91	—

Wanted Goons

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP relt	38	38	18	50%	87.5	75.9%	1.16	—
killerPandas	41	35	9	22%	84.0	64.8%	1.13	—
hibui	35	38	14	54%	81.2	66.7%	1.02	—
Johan	37	44	11	51%	78.5	61.1%	0.94	—
Magic_KS	33	40	11	42%	65.2	61.1%	0.87	—

DETONATE WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
ziddy	30	16	6	57%	99.9	77.4%	1.53	—
tatm	23	16	11	52%	93.3	74.2%	1.30	—
Feral	21	23	5	33%	91.5	67.7%	1.06	—
duhpe	22	23	8	36%	74.8	67.7%	1.04	—
carn	20	24	8	35%	75.2	58.1%	0.90	—

Wanted Goons

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
relt	22	24	11	64%	88.2	77.4%	1.15	—
hibui	21	21	9	52%	82.5	64.5%	1.05	—
Johan	24	25	2	50%	85.0	61.3%	1.03	—
killerPandas	17	20	6	24%	70.3	61.3%	0.88	—
Magic_KS	14	23	9	36%	59.5	58.1%	0.70	—

DETONATE WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
carn	26	16	6	50%	119.0	69.6%	1.58	—
duhpe	18	17	2	39%	88.5	68.2%	1.15	—
tatm	15	16	5	60%	77.9	69.6%	1.03	—
ziddy	11	18	6	36%	64.0	60.9%	0.73	—
Feral	10	19	9	50%	64.6	65.2%	0.72	—

Wanted Goons

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
killerPandas	24	15	3	21%	102.4	69.6%	1.46	—
relt	16	14	7	31%	86.5	73.9%	1.19	—
Magic_KS	19	17	2	47%	72.8	65.2%	1.10	—
hibui	14	17	5	57%	79.4	69.6%	0.98	—
Johan	13	19	9	54%	69.8	60.9%	0.82	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = DETONATE · Magenta = Wanted Goons. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

ziddy carn tatm relt killerPandas duhpe hibui Johan Feral Magic_KS