F5 vs Wanted Goons — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395283

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

CHALLENGER

1 : 2

SERIES COMPLETE

Wanted Goons

WINNER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✗ WRONG CALL

F5 60% Wanted Goons 40%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.221

PHANTOM +0.134

PHANTOM confidence -0.054

SHADOW BET 7.1u @ 1.714 → -7.1u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 F5 57%

✗

PHANTOM v2 F5 64%

✗

TITAN v2 F5 60%

✗

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

60%

MODEL ODDS

0.60

BET ODDS

1.714

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

dust2 0% F5

mirage 63% F5

overpass 39% F5

inferno 61% F5

nuke 59% F5

anubis 46% F5

ancient 49% F5

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

ancient 13 – 6 F5 took the map.

mirage 9 – 13 Wanted Goons took the map.

nuke 7 – 13 Wanted Goons took the map.

Side

F5

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP cmrn	57	40	11	61%	122.4	66.0%	1.52	—
Grimblee	14	13	3	29%	77.8	47.4%	0.94	—
neight	33	38	10	48%	76.9	60.0%	0.93	—
b0nes	17	23	6	24%	68.8	64.5%	0.85	—
Coach\|_Kurrent_	1	1	0	0%	—	100.0%	0.80	—
Signal	24	38	12	58%	60.9	64.0%	0.76	—
kermi	13	36	7	62%	41.6	46.0%	0.39	—

Wanted Goons WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP Johan	45	29	6	58%	91.4	78.0%	1.40	—
hibui	36	32	15	47%	91.0	74.0%	1.20	—
Magic_KS	39	32	12	54%	87.6	66.0%	1.18	—
relt	35	35	15	57%	89.9	70.0%	1.12	—
killerPandas	32	36	8	19%	71.9	58.0%	0.90	—
Coach\|Fraq	1	1	0	0%	—	100.0%	0.80	—

F5 WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
cmrn	16	7	3	56%	155.7	80.0%	2.18	—
b0nes	7	7	2	0%	79.4	70.0%	1.08	—
kermi	6	7	1	67%	75.7	60.0%	0.90	—
neight	5	8	4	40%	82.5	70.0%	0.88	—
Signal	5	7	3	60%	56.0	70.0%	0.84	—
▸ Observers (2)
Coach\|Fraq	— observer —
Coach\|_Kurrent_	— observer —

Wanted Goons

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
relt	10	10	5	40%	116.8	90.0%	1.47	—
hibui	10	7	2	60%	112.2	50.0%	1.30	—
Magic_KS	7	8	4	71%	79.9	60.0%	0.97	—
Johan	5	7	4	60%	65.8	60.0%	0.81	—
killerPandas	3	9	3	0%	55.2	30.0%	0.27	—

F5

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
cmrn	21	15	4	62%	127.5	68.4%	1.53	—
Grimblee	14	13	3	29%	77.8	47.4%	0.94	—
Signal	13	16	3	46%	65.0	63.2%	0.89	—
neight	9	14	2	67%	53.9	52.6%	0.65	—
kermi	3	13	3	100%	42.5	36.8%	0.25	—
▸ Observers (2)
Coach\|_Kurrent_	— observer —
Coach\|Fraq	— observer —

Wanted Goons WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Magic_KS	18	12	5	44%	101.8	73.7%	1.43	—
Johan	16	10	0	38%	79.1	84.2%	1.38	—
relt	14	10	4	64%	94.3	63.2%	1.20	—
hibui	10	12	9	40%	87.0	79.0%	1.08	—
killerPandas	11	14	2	9%	63.7	57.9%	0.81	—

F5

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
neight	19	16	4	42%	95.1	61.9%	1.21	—
cmrn	20	18	4	65%	102.0	57.1%	1.19	—
Coach\|_Kurrent_	1	1	0	0%	—	100.0%	0.81	—
b0nes	10	16	4	40%	63.8	61.9%	0.74	—
Signal	6	15	6	83%	59.4	61.9%	0.60	—
kermi	4	16	3	25%	24.5	47.6%	0.26	—

Wanted Goons WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Johan	24	12	2	71%	114.8	81.0%	1.71	—
killerPandas	18	13	3	28%	87.2	71.4%	1.29	—
hibui	16	13	4	44%	84.5	81.0%	1.27	—
Magic_KS	14	12	3	57%	78.5	61.9%	1.05	—
relt	11	15	6	64%	73.1	66.7%	0.88	—
Coach\|Fraq	1	1	0	0%	—	100.0%	0.81	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = F5 · Magenta = Wanted Goons. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

View team →

Wanted Goons

Series winner

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

cmrn Johan hibui Magic_KS relt Grimblee neight killerPandas b0nes Coach|_Kurrent_ Coach|Fraq Signal kermi