T3 · BO3
CS2 · 2026-06-13
FINAL
DETONATE
CHALLENGER
0
:
2
SERIES COMPLETE
Festina Lente
WINNER
/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY
Prediction breakdown
DETONATE 59%
Festina Lente 41%
WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)
Ensemble mean
+0.224
PHANTOM
+0.105
PHANTOM confidence
-0.054
SHADOW BET
1.0u @ 1.653 → -1.0u
half-Kelly sizing · paper only
ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS
ORACLE v2
DETONATE
64%
✗
PHANTOM v2
DETONATE
51%
✗
NEXUS v2
DETONATE
62%
✗
TITAN v2
DETONATE
59%
✗
OUTCOME PROBABILITY
59%
DETONATE
MODEL ODDS
0.59
BET ODDS
1.653
/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE
Veto simulation & map probabilities
ancient
100% DETONATE
dust2
0% DETONATE
nuke
33% DETONATE
anubis
40% DETONATE
mirage
50% DETONATE
Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.
PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS
anubis
11 – 13
Festina Lente took the map.
nuke
7 – 13
Festina Lente took the map.
Side
DETONATE
| Player | K | D | A | HS% | ADR | KAST | Rating | CQR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MVP
ziddy
|
32 | 29 | 13 | 1.09 | ||||
| 32 | 37 | 9 | 1.03 | |||||
| 31 | 37 | 12 | 0.96 | |||||
| 23 | 33 | 15 | 0.80 | |||||
| 21 | 35 | 4 | 0.62 |
DETONATE
| Player | K | D | A | HS% | ADR | KAST | Rating | CQR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
tatm
|
17 | 16 | 9 | 1.09 | ||||
|
ziddy
|
15 | 16 | 8 | 1.01 | ||||
|
Feral
|
16 | 21 | 8 | 0.96 | ||||
|
duhpe
|
16 | 20 | 4 | 0.94 | ||||
|
carn
|
8 | 19 | 3 | 0.45 |
Festina Lente WIN
| Player | K | D | A | HS% | ADR | KAST | Rating | CQR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Fruitcupx
|
27 | 10 | 5 | 1.77 | ||||
|
gamble
|
22 | 14 | 6 | 1.49 | ||||
|
FRIZZY
|
19 | 15 | 6 | 1.22 | ||||
|
Maxuel
|
16 | 18 | 6 | 1.03 | ||||
|
JonjiJLC
|
11 | 18 | 10 | 0.83 |
DETONATE
| Player | K | D | A | HS% | ADR | KAST | Rating | CQR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ziddy
|
17 | 13 | 5 | 1.18 | ||||
|
duhpe
|
16 | 17 | 5 | 1.14 | ||||
|
Feral
|
15 | 16 | 4 | 0.97 | ||||
|
carn
|
13 | 16 | 1 | 0.81 | ||||
|
tatm
|
6 | 17 | 6 | 0.46 |
Festina Lente WIN
| Player | K | D | A | HS% | ADR | KAST | Rating | CQR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FRIZZY
|
18 | 12 | 3 | 1.38 | ||||
|
JonjiJLC
|
18 | 15 | 5 | 1.27 | ||||
|
Fruitcupx
|
16 | 16 | 4 | 1.12 | ||||
|
gamble
|
14 | 13 | 1 | 1.06 | ||||
|
Maxuel
|
12 | 13 | 1 | 0.87 |
/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035
Win probability by round —
Cyan = DETONATE · Magenta = Festina Lente. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.
◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.
⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.