Washed vs MASONIC — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395276

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

Washed

WINNER

2 : 1

SERIES COMPLETE

MASONIC

CHALLENGER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✓ CORRECT CALL

Washed 39% MASONIC 61%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean -0.293

Elo win prob +0.042

PHANTOM +0.024

SHADOW BET 8.3u @ 1.689 → +5.7u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 MASONIC 64%

✓

PHANTOM v2 MASONIC 61%

✓

TITAN v2 MASONIC 61%

✓

NEXUS v2 MASONIC 61%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

39%

Washed

MODEL ODDS

0.39

BET ODDS

1.689

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

MAP POOL

ancient 75% Washed

anubis 72% Washed

inferno 71% Washed

mirage 80% Washed

nuke 53% Washed

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

ancient 13 – 10 Washed took the map.

inferno 13 – 9 Washed took the map.

nuke 9 – 13 MASONIC took the map.

Side

Washed WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP Botman	50	42	17	52%	90.1	76.1%	1.24	—
Noruyp	43	39	7	33%	72.9	62.7%	1.01	—
kralle	42	47	16	57%	82.1	64.2%	0.99	—
Frøslev	38	44	17	50%	73.8	70.2%	0.98	—
b0RUP	37	47	13	68%	72.3	61.2%	0.86	—

MASONIC

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP Lucky	54	43	20	46%	102.2	77.6%	1.34	—
kiR	46	37	13	52%	74.6	65.7%	1.10	—
kroK	44	47	16	55%	88.7	65.7%	1.04	—
ANSG1	38	38	12	50%	65.4	68.7%	0.98	—
suma	38	47	21	39%	65.0	73.1%	0.95	—

Washed WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Noruyp	17	13	2	29%	80.9	65.2%	1.14	—
kralle	18	17	4	72%	88.9	60.9%	1.09	—
Frøslev	13	17	10	62%	86.4	69.6%	0.98	—
Botman	12	14	5	58%	67.1	69.6%	0.93	—
b0RUP	14	16	3	57%	79.0	56.5%	0.90	—

MASONIC

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
kroK	18	14	6	50%	102.7	73.9%	1.31	—
Lucky	18	16	7	50%	101.2	73.9%	1.26	—
kiR	17	12	4	41%	70.9	78.3%	1.24	—
suma	16	17	7	44%	74.8	82.6%	1.14	—
ANSG1	9	16	5	44%	54.4	60.9%	0.67	—

Washed WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Botman	21	14	8	52%	112.7	86.4%	1.58	—
Frøslev	13	14	4	54%	74.4	68.2%	0.99	—
b0RUP	11	13	5	55%	66.5	72.7%	0.95	—
Noruyp	12	13	1	25%	66.4	50.0%	0.80	—
kralle	10	16	7	60%	70.9	63.6%	0.79	—

MASONIC

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
ANSG1	15	10	4	53%	77.8	72.7%	1.21	—
Lucky	16	14	8	38%	85.7	72.7%	1.19	—
kiR	15	12	5	53%	85.3	68.2%	1.15	—
suma	12	14	10	25%	61.0	72.7%	0.97	—
kroK	12	17	6	42%	85.3	63.6%	0.89	—

Washed

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Botman	17	14	4	47%	91.6	72.7%	1.23	—
Noruyp	14	13	4	43%	71.1	72.7%	1.07	—
kralle	14	14	5	36%	86.2	68.2%	1.07	—
Frøslev	12	13	3	33%	60.2	72.7%	0.96	—
b0RUP	12	18	5	92%	71.0	54.6%	0.75	—

MASONIC WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Lucky	20	13	5	50%	119.8	86.4%	1.57	—
ANSG1	14	12	3	50%	64.5	72.7%	1.07	—
kroK	14	16	4	71%	77.4	59.1%	0.92	—
kiR	14	13	4	64%	67.6	50.0%	0.90	—
suma	10	16	4	50%	58.9	63.6%	0.74	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = Washed · Magenta = MASONIC. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

Lucky Botman kiR kroK Noruyp kralle ANSG1 Frøslev suma b0RUP