MASQ vs STATE — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395275

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

MASQ

CHALLENGER

1 : 2

SERIES COMPLETE

STATE

WINNER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✗ WRONG CALL

MASQ 59% STATE 41%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.212

PHANTOM +0.134

PHANTOM confidence -0.054

SHADOW BET 6.7u @ 1.735 → -6.7u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 STATE 50%

✓

PHANTOM v2 MASQ 64%

✗

TITAN v2 MASQ 59%

✗

NEXUS v2 STATE 67%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

59%

MASQ

MODEL ODDS

0.59

BET ODDS

1.735

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

MAP POOL

ancient 74% MASQ

overpass 0% MASQ

mirage 0% MASQ

inferno 51% MASQ

nuke 50% MASQ

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

inferno 8 – 13 STATE took the map.

mirage 4 – 13 STATE took the map.

nuke 13 – 10 MASQ took the map.

Side

MASQ

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP Inspire	51	47	19	61%	95.8	69.4%	1.21	—
superflik	44	46	17	41%	85.3	67.7%	1.07	—
redeye	38	49	13	55%	78.2	59.7%	0.88	—
Z1noz	35	46	12	37%	64.0	59.7%	0.81	—
toby	33	48	14	67%	67.1	54.8%	0.75	—

STATE WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP thamlike RIFLER	50	37	27	36%	92.9	88.7%	1.43	4.7
sL1m3 AWP	50	45	14	30%	92.4	77.4%	1.26	5.1
Kwezz	47	39	21	40%	87.8	74.2%	1.24	—
Zanto RIFLER	47	38	11	55%	79.3	77.4%	1.23	4.3
Patti	41	43	23	61%	89.2	64.5%	1.06	—

MASQ

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
superflik	19	15	6	42%	96.5	86.4%	1.41	—
Z1noz	20	13	4	45%	75.5	81.8%	1.39	—
toby	14	16	7	86%	79.0	68.2%	1.01	—
Inspire	14	16	8	50%	77.5	68.2%	1.01	—
redeye	10	19	5	50%	66.2	59.1%	0.66	—

STATE WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Kwezz	17	12	4	47%	78.3	72.7%	1.24	—
thamlike	17	16	9	29%	81.5	77.3%	1.21	4.7
sL1m3	16	16	8	38%	86.5	77.3%	1.18	5.1
Zanto	16	13	5	63%	77.6	72.7%	1.18	4.3
Patti	12	19	9	42%	78.4	59.1%	0.80	—

MASQ

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Inspire	18	13	2	83%	111.4	58.8%	1.37	—
superflik	8	15	4	38%	76.5	47.1%	0.61	—
redeye	8	15	1	75%	67.5	52.9%	0.61	—
Z1noz	6	16	2	33%	56.9	29.4%	0.27	—
toby	3	14	3	67%	32.1	35.3%	0.15	—

STATE WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
sL1m3	20	11	3	25%	126.6	94.1%	1.84	5.1
Patti	20	8	4	70%	124.7	76.5%	1.81	—
Kwezz	15	10	8	33%	99.2	88.2%	1.52	—
thamlike	11	7	10	36%	88.5	94.1%	1.43	4.7
Zanto	8	8	3	38%	48.4	76.5%	0.95	4.3

MASQ WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Inspire	19	18	9	47%	101.8	78.3%	1.30	—
redeye	20	15	7	50%	97.6	65.2%	1.28	—
superflik	17	16	7	41%	81.0	65.2%	1.10	—
toby	16	18	4	50%	81.7	56.5%	0.94	—
Z1noz	9	17	6	22%	58.2	60.9%	0.66	—

STATE

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
thamlike	22	14	8	41%	107.0	95.7%	1.64	4.7
Zanto	23	17	3	57%	103.8	82.6%	1.48	4.3
Kwezz	15	17	9	40%	88.5	65.2%	1.03	—
sL1m3	14	18	3	29%	72.9	65.2%	0.89	5.1
Patti	9	16	10	67%	73.3	60.9%	0.75	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = MASQ · Magenta = STATE. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

thamlike sL1m3 Kwezz Zanto Inspire superflik Patti redeye Z1noz toby