MASQ vs Washed — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395274

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

MASQ

CHALLENGER

0 : 2

SERIES COMPLETE

Washed

WINNER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✗ WRONG CALL

MASQ 65% Washed 35%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.379

PHANTOM +0.128

PHANTOM confidence -0.058

SHADOW BET 12.8u @ 1.596 → -12.8u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 MASQ 66%

✗

PHANTOM v2 MASQ 64%

✗

TITAN v2 MASQ 65%

✗

NEXUS v2 Washed 51%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

65%

MASQ

MODEL ODDS

0.65

BET ODDS

1.596

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

MAP POOL

mirage 0% MASQ

inferno 33% MASQ

nuke 57% MASQ

ancient 50% MASQ

overpass 0% WR (0/1)

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

mirage 7 – 13 Washed took the map.

nuke 7 – 13 Washed took the map.

Side

MASQ

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP redeye	30	31	7	47%	86.4	67.5%	1.08	—
Inspire	30	30	5	67%	79.9	60.0%	1.02	—
Z1noz	29	32	5	45%	88.8	60.0%	1.00	—
superflik	22	37	6	36%	65.2	52.5%	0.65	—
toby	18	30	4	61%	63.6	52.5%	0.65	—

Washed WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP Lucky	41	22	14	41%	114.6	82.5%	1.66	—
ANSG1	32	30	12	47%	92.1	77.5%	1.24	—
suma	30	26	11	60%	86.8	65.0%	1.14	—
kroK	30	29	7	73%	77.4	70.0%	1.10	—
kiR	26	27	13	65%	76.8	67.5%	1.04	—

MASQ

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
redeye	18	13	2	50%	102.8	85.0%	1.45	—
toby	11	15	1	64%	76.7	55.0%	0.79	—
Z1noz	11	16	1	64%	65.3	50.0%	0.69	—
superflik	11	19	3	36%	60.9	45.0%	0.57	—
Inspire	11	18	2	73%	61.2	40.0%	0.56	—

Washed WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Lucky	19	11	7	42%	98.1	80.0%	1.52	—
suma	17	11	4	59%	91.8	70.0%	1.33	—
kroK	17	15	4	76%	89.4	75.0%	1.25	—
ANSG1	15	15	6	80%	97.7	80.0%	1.24	—
kiR	13	13	6	62%	79.5	65.0%	1.04	—

MASQ

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Inspire	19	12	3	63%	98.7	80.0%	1.48	—
Z1noz	18	16	4	33%	112.4	70.0%	1.30	—
superflik	11	18	3	36%	69.5	60.0%	0.73	—
redeye	12	18	5	42%	70.1	50.0%	0.72	—
toby	7	15	3	57%	50.6	50.0%	0.51	—

Washed WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Lucky	22	11	7	41%	131.2	85.0%	1.79	—
ANSG1	17	15	6	18%	86.6	75.0%	1.25	—
kiR	13	14	7	69%	74.2	70.0%	1.03	—
suma	13	15	7	62%	81.8	60.0%	0.96	—
kroK	13	14	3	69%	65.4	65.0%	0.95	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = MASQ · Magenta = Washed. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

Lucky ANSG1 suma kroK redeye kiR Inspire Z1noz superflik toby