STATE vs MASONIC — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395273

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

STATE

CHALLENGER

1 : 2

SERIES COMPLETE

MASONIC

WINNER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✗ WRONG CALL

STATE 44% MASONIC 56%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean -0.201

Elo win prob +0.104

PHANTOM +0.016

SHADOW BET 4.5u @ 1.807 → -4.5u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 STATE 54%

✓

PHANTOM v2 MASONIC 61%

✗

TITAN v2 MASONIC 56%

✗

NEXUS v2 STATE 54%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

44%

STATE

MODEL ODDS

0.44

BET ODDS

1.807

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

nuke 61% STATE

mirage 68% STATE

anubis 40% STATE

inferno 54% STATE

overpass 53% STATE

ancient 51% STATE

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

ancient 10 – 13 MASONIC took the map.

nuke 13 – 11 STATE took the map.

overpass 11 – 13 MASONIC took the map.

Side

STATE

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP kralle	66	49	20	48%	107.5	69.0%	1.37	—
b0RUP	57	50	14	67%	86.1	70.4%	1.19	—
Frøslev	53	46	20	53%	87.7	70.4%	1.18	—
Noruyp	44	43	7	14%	67.5	63.4%	0.96	—
Botman	32	54	30	31%	69.2	69.0%	0.81	—

MASONIC WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP thamlike RIFLER	53	48	13	36%	86.2	71.8%	1.17	4.7
Kwezz	53	53	23	49%	86.5	67.6%	1.11	—
sL1m3 AWP	51	51	9	37%	79.3	62.0%	1.02	5.1
Zanto RIFLER	40	47	19	50%	68.0	67.6%	0.93	4.3
Patti	41	55	12	41%	72.7	62.0%	0.85	—

STATE

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
kralle	24	17	10	46%	121.4	78.3%	1.57	—
Noruyp	17	13	2	18%	84.3	69.6%	1.19	—
b0RUP	20	19	2	60%	89.9	69.6%	1.18	—
Frøslev	16	15	5	50%	81.2	65.2%	1.07	—
Botman	7	20	10	29%	51.7	60.9%	0.51	—

MASONIC WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Kwezz	22	19	9	45%	114.7	82.6%	1.46	—
sL1m3	19	18	3	42%	92.4	73.9%	1.21	5.1
Zanto	14	14	9	43%	68.4	78.3%	1.09	4.3
thamlike	14	15	4	21%	67.8	69.6%	0.98	4.7
Patti	11	17	7	36%	70.1	60.9%	0.78	—

STATE WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
kralle	22	16	3	59%	103.1	75.0%	1.39	—
b0RUP	19	16	5	74%	84.9	66.7%	1.17	—
Frøslev	13	16	5	62%	71.3	66.7%	0.91	—
Noruyp	13	13	2	8%	59.4	58.3%	0.87	—
Botman	11	17	9	27%	71.9	66.7%	0.83	—

MASONIC

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
thamlike	21	16	5	38%	103.8	75.0%	1.36	4.7
sL1m3	19	14	2	42%	83.6	62.5%	1.17	5.1
Patti	15	18	4	47%	76.3	66.7%	0.95	—
Kwezz	14	17	8	64%	71.0	62.5%	0.91	—
Zanto	9	15	3	44%	45.2	54.2%	0.61	4.3

STATE

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Frøslev	24	15	10	50%	110.4	79.2%	1.57	—
b0RUP	18	15	7	67%	83.5	75.0%	1.22	—
kralle	20	16	7	40%	98.5	54.2%	1.17	—
Botman	14	17	11	36%	83.2	79.2%	1.08	—
Noruyp	14	17	3	14%	59.5	62.5%	0.85	—

MASONIC WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
thamlike	18	17	4	44%	86.3	70.8%	1.14	4.7
Zanto	17	18	7	59%	90.4	70.8%	1.11	4.3
Kwezz	17	17	6	41%	75.0	58.3%	0.99	—
Patti	15	20	1	40%	71.5	58.3%	0.82	—
sL1m3	13	19	4	23%	62.5	50.0%	0.69	5.1

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = STATE · Magenta = MASONIC. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

kralle b0RUP Frøslev thamlike Kwezz sL1m3 Noruyp Zanto Patti Botman