struggletony vs MASONIC

MATCHES / #2395272

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

struggletony

CHALLENGER

0 : 2

SERIES COMPLETE

MASONIC

WINNER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✓ CORRECT CALL

struggletony 39% MASONIC 61%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean -0.293

Elo win prob +0.039

PHANTOM +0.024

SHADOW BET 7.9u @ 1.689 → +5.4u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 MASONIC 64%

✓

PHANTOM v2 MASONIC 61%

✓

TITAN v2 MASONIC 61%

✓

NEXUS v2 MASONIC 58%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

39%

struggletony

MODEL ODDS

0.39

BET ODDS

1.689

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

MAP POOL

ancient 75% struggletony

dust2 0% struggletony

nuke 43% struggletony

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

dust2 11 – 13 MASONIC took the map.

nuke 14 – 16 MASONIC took the map.

Side

struggletony

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP Q-Q	42	37	11	50%	75.4	75.9%	1.16	—
Altekz RIFLER	43	42	10	51%	83.3	67.2%	1.09	6.3
birdfromsky	36	45	20	58%	78.1	67.2%	0.96	—
Queenix RIFLER	38	46	11	66%	72.8	65.5%	0.94	3.4
Twinx	37	50	12	38%	67.6	69.0%	0.89	—

MASONIC WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP Frøslev	58	38	14	38%	106.8	75.9%	1.50	—
kralle	50	43	15	52%	96.8	81.0%	1.34	—
Botman	46	40	12	63%	89.0	77.6%	1.25	—
Noruyp	37	39	7	24%	57.6	60.3%	0.89	—
b0RUP	25	38	12	60%	55.2	70.7%	0.80	—

struggletony

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Q-Q	20	19	7	50%	66.6	78.6%	1.13	—
Altekz	20	19	4	70%	73.4	64.3%	1.04	6.3
birdfromsky	16	21	10	63%	68.9	78.6%	0.99	—
Queenix	17	23	6	65%	75.1	67.9%	0.91	3.4
Twinx	18	25	6	44%	61.9	67.9%	0.86	—

MASONIC WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Frøslev	28	22	8	39%	104.3	75.0%	1.42	—
Botman	22	17	7	59%	86.9	85.7%	1.35	—
Noruyp	21	15	6	29%	65.1	78.6%	1.23	—
kralle	20	19	7	45%	74.8	78.6%	1.16	—
b0RUP	13	19	6	54%	59.6	71.4%	0.84	—

struggletony

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Q-Q	22	18	4	50%	83.6	73.3%	1.19	—
Altekz	23	23	6	35%	92.5	70.0%	1.14	6.3
Queenix	21	23	5	67%	70.8	63.3%	0.96	3.4
birdfromsky	20	24	10	55%	86.7	56.7%	0.94	—
Twinx	19	25	6	32%	72.9	70.0%	0.93	—

MASONIC WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Frøslev	30	16	6	37%	109.1	76.7%	1.57	—
kralle	30	24	8	57%	117.5	83.3%	1.51	—
Botman	24	23	5	67%	91.0	70.0%	1.16	—
b0RUP	12	19	6	67%	51.0	70.0%	0.76	—
Noruyp	16	24	1	19%	50.6	43.3%	0.58	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = struggletony · Magenta = MASONIC. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

Frøslev kralle Botman Q-Q Altekz birdfromsky Queenix Twinx Noruyp b0RUP