Wanted Goons vs F5 — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395248

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-13 FINAL

Wanted Goons

WINNER

2 : 1

SERIES COMPLETE

CHALLENGER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✓ CORRECT CALL

Wanted Goons 72% F5 28%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.430

PHANTOM +0.214

PHANTOM confidence +0.064

SHADOW BET 12.9u @ 1.461 → +5.9u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 Wanted Goons 57%

✓

PHANTOM v2 Wanted Goons 80%

✓

TITAN v2 Wanted Goons 72%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

72%

Wanted Goons

MODEL ODDS

0.72

BET ODDS

1.461

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

dust2 100% Wanted Goons

mirage 37% Wanted Goons

overpass 61% Wanted Goons

inferno 39% Wanted Goons

nuke 41% Wanted Goons

anubis 54% Wanted Goons

ancient 51% Wanted Goons

vertigo 100% WR (1/1)

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

ancient 13 – 8 Wanted Goons took the map.

nuke 4 – 13 F5 took the map.

overpass 13 – 10 Wanted Goons took the map.

Side

Wanted Goons WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP relt	48	46	23	52%	93.0	76.6%	1.22	—
Johan	53	47	15	60%	91.7	67.2%	1.19	—
killerPandas	47	43	10	30%	77.2	62.5%	1.06	—
hibui	41	44	15	41%	74.9	67.2%	1.00	—
Magic_KS	37	48	15	59%	74.5	64.1%	0.89	—
Coach\|Fraq	3	3	0	0%	—	100.0%	0.81	—

F5

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP neight	61	48	16	54%	111.2	75.0%	1.41	—
b0nes	47	38	9	53%	79.8	76.6%	1.21	—
kermi	43	43	15	49%	83.8	67.2%	1.07	—
cmrn	30	33	11	77%	85.7	64.3%	1.03	—
Grimblee	17	21	5	35%	77.5	72.0%	1.00	—
Signal	25	40	13	32%	48.7	60.9%	0.69	—

Wanted Goons WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
relt	21	15	9	52%	119.6	81.8%	1.54	—
Johan	22	14	4	68%	103.2	63.6%	1.40	—
Magic_KS	13	15	3	38%	65.2	77.3%	1.00	—
killerPandas	13	14	4	15%	71.9	63.6%	0.95	—
hibui	11	15	6	45%	73.1	63.6%	0.86	—
Coach\|Fraq	1	1	0	0%	—	100.0%	0.81	—

F5

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
neight	24	17	4	50%	111.7	77.3%	1.53	—
b0nes	19	15	4	42%	91.1	72.7%	1.29	—
kermi	15	16	7	53%	84.6	68.2%	1.06	—
Grimblee	14	20	5	36%	74.4	72.7%	0.92	—
Signal	4	16	5	75%	28.1	50.0%	0.31	—

Wanted Goons

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
relt	11	13	6	55%	82.6	83.3%	1.11	—
killerPandas	14	14	3	50%	74.4	61.1%	1.02	—
Johan	10	15	5	50%	74.9	66.7%	0.85	—
Coach\|Fraq	1	1	0	0%	—	100.0%	0.81	—
Magic_KS	10	16	4	80%	81.7	55.6%	0.76	—
hibui	9	15	3	33%	57.1	61.1%	0.70	—

F5 WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
neight	22	13	6	50%	146.7	83.3%	1.84	—
b0nes	14	8	4	64%	87.4	83.3%	1.41	—
Signal	10	7	4	20%	57.7	88.9%	1.19	—
kermi	11	11	2	45%	73.2	72.2%	1.04	—
cmrn	12	12	5	75%	83.1	61.1%	1.02	—

Wanted Goons WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
hibui	21	14	6	43%	90.0	75.0%	1.37	—
Johan	21	18	6	57%	93.7	70.8%	1.26	—
killerPandas	20	15	3	25%	84.1	62.5%	1.19	—
relt	16	18	8	50%	76.3	66.7%	1.00	—
Magic_KS	14	17	8	64%	77.6	58.3%	0.90	—
Coach\|Fraq	1	1	0	0%	—	100.0%	0.81	—

F5

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Grimblee	3	1	0	33%	100.0	66.7%	1.56	—
kermi	17	16	6	47%	90.9	62.5%	1.09	—
cmrn	18	21	6	78%	87.7	66.7%	1.04	—
b0nes	14	15	1	57%	63.8	75.0%	0.99	—
neight	15	18	6	67%	84.1	66.7%	0.98	—
Signal	11	17	4	27%	60.9	50.0%	0.66	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = Wanted Goons · Magenta = F5. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

Wanted Goons

Series winner

View team →

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

neight relt b0nes Johan kermi killerPandas cmrn hibui Grimblee Magic_KS Coach|Fraq Signal