GenOne vs 100 Thieves — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395211

HLTV

T2 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-20 FINAL

GenOne

CHALLENGER

0 : 2

SERIES COMPLETE

100 Thieves

WINNER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✗ WRONG CALL

GenOne 86% 100 Thieves 14%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.857

PHANTOM +0.394

PHANTOM confidence +0.185

SHADOW BET 19.1u @ 2.817 → -19.1u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 GenOne 85%

✗

PHANTOM v2 GenOne 94%

✗

NEXUS v2 GenOne 58%

✗

TITAN v2 GenOne 86%

✗

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

86%

GenOne

MODEL ODDS

0.86

BET ODDS

2.817

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

vertigo 29% GenOne

ancient 38% GenOne

overpass 41% GenOne

mirage 38% GenOne

inferno 42% GenOne

anubis 59% GenOne

dust2 46% GenOne

nuke 47% GenOne

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

dust2 7 – 13 100 Thieves took the map.

inferno 6 – 13 100 Thieves took the map.

Side

GenOne

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP bL4SEZ	23	30	5	65%	72.7	56.4%	0.82	—
Keoz RIFLER	23	31	10	57%	71.4	56.4%	0.81	7.4
Brooxsy RIFLER	20	32	11	65%	73.7	61.5%	0.78	7.8
Chucky	15	26	7	47%	54.7	64.1%	0.70	—
Djoko RIFLER	20	33	7	85%	67.0	53.9%	0.68	7.5

100 Thieves WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP rain ENTRY	36	20	13	53%	112.3	84.6%	1.60	7.7
dev1ce	38	18	7	39%	100.7	76.9%	1.56	—
sirah RIFLER	30	20	8	47%	86.6	82.1%	1.35	8.1
Ag1l	24	20	9	50%	70.2	84.6%	1.19	—
poiii RIFLER	27	27	16	70%	84.1	69.2%	1.11	8.1

GenOne

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Keoz	14	15	5	57%	87.3	60.0%	1.01	7.4
Djoko	13	17	4	85%	81.6	65.0%	0.93	7.5
bL4SEZ	11	13	3	64%	63.3	55.0%	0.81	—
Brooxsy	9	16	6	67%	63.3	60.0%	0.70	7.8
Chucky	3	12	5	33%	37.9	60.0%	0.46	—

100 Thieves WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
rain	20	11	5	60%	106.8	90.0%	1.66	7.7
sirah	14	8	3	50%	92.5	80.0%	1.35	8.1
dev1ce	16	10	5	50%	97.8	70.0%	1.34	—
poiii	15	13	8	73%	85.9	70.0%	1.19	8.1
Ag1l	9	9	5	56%	63.2	85.0%	1.06	—

GenOne

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Chucky	12	14	2	50%	72.5	68.4%	0.96	—
Brooxsy	11	16	5	64%	84.7	63.2%	0.87	7.8
bL4SEZ	12	17	2	67%	82.6	57.9%	0.83	—
Keoz	9	16	5	56%	54.7	52.6%	0.61	7.4
Djoko	7	16	3	86%	51.6	42.1%	0.42	7.5

100 Thieves WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
dev1ce	22	8	2	32%	103.8	84.2%	1.80	—
rain	16	9	8	44%	118.0	79.0%	1.53	7.7
sirah	16	12	5	44%	80.5	84.2%	1.35	8.1
Ag1l	15	11	4	47%	77.6	84.2%	1.32	—
poiii	12	14	8	67%	82.3	68.4%	1.02	8.1

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = GenOne · Magenta = 100 Thieves. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

rain dev1ce sirah Ag1l poiii bL4SEZ Keoz Brooxsy Chucky Djoko