K27 vs Virtus.pro — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395207

HLTV

T2 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-19 FINAL

K27

CHALLENGER

1 : 2

SERIES COMPLETE

Virtus.pro

WINNER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✗ WRONG CALL

K27 76% Virtus.pro 24%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.799

PHANTOM +0.197

Elo win prob -0.147

SHADOW BET 16.5u @ 1.385 → -16.5u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 K27 76%

✗

PHANTOM v2 K27 80%

✗

TITAN v2 K27 76%

✗

NEXUS v2 K27 69%

✗

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

76%

K27

MODEL ODDS

0.76

BET ODDS

1.385

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

nuke 20% K27

dust2 68% K27

ancient 66% K27

overpass 59% K27

anubis 40% K27

mirage 54% K27

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

mirage 9 – 13 Virtus.pro took the map.

nuke 17 – 19 Virtus.pro took the map.

overpass 13 – 10 K27 took the map.

Side

K27

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP xeedo RIFLER	65	61	19	55%	85.3	66.3%	1.13	8.5
X5G7V ENTRY	59	60	23	39%	83.5	73.5%	1.12	7.9
fame	63	58	13	51%	80.2	67.5%	1.11	—
kashl1d AWP	58	51	22	41%	76.4	66.3%	1.09	8.5
qw1nk1 RIFLER	52	60	22	67%	77.7	68.7%	0.99	8.4

Virtus.pro WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP b1st	71	50	12	31%	94.4	67.5%	1.29	—
tO0RO	54	58	15	54%	72.4	71.1%	1.02	—
mir	53	62	24	43%	73.6	68.7%	0.98	—
F0R3VER	54	60	11	59%	73.6	59.0%	0.92	—
AquaRS	53	68	16	57%	77.1	62.7%	0.90	—

K27

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
X5G7V	19	16	9	37%	104.2	78.3%	1.35	7.9
kashl1d	20	16	9	55%	102.1	65.2%	1.28	8.5
xeedo	15	19	2	67%	68.0	52.2%	0.79	8.5
fame	13	18	2	69%	66.5	47.8%	0.70	—
qw1nk1	10	16	3	60%	54.1	56.5%	0.67	8.4

Virtus.pro WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
mir	25	14	6	40%	109.0	82.6%	1.65	—
b1st	21	15	3	14%	99.9	69.6%	1.34	—
F0R3VER	18	15	5	78%	89.7	65.2%	1.18	—
tO0RO	12	15	6	17%	63.7	69.6%	0.90	—
AquaRS	10	20	7	70%	65.0	56.5%	0.63	—

K27

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
xeedo	30	27	11	57%	96.6	75.0%	1.27	8.5
fame	27	24	8	37%	78.1	75.0%	1.17	—
qw1nk1	25	26	10	72%	81.4	72.2%	1.09	8.4
X5G7V	26	27	8	46%	76.5	72.2%	1.08	7.9
kashl1d	22	20	11	45%	71.9	69.4%	1.06	8.5

Virtus.pro WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
b1st	29	21	7	28%	96.2	63.9%	1.24	—
AquaRS	31	27	5	61%	95.3	69.4%	1.23	—
tO0RO	27	28	6	56%	82.1	75.0%	1.12	—
F0R3VER	21	28	4	57%	66.9	61.1%	0.82	—
mir	13	28	8	54%	47.4	61.1%	0.58	—

K27 WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
fame	23	16	3	57%	96.6	75.0%	1.40	—
xeedo	20	15	6	45%	85.0	66.7%	1.23	8.5
qw1nk1	17	18	9	65%	94.6	75.0%	1.16	8.4
X5G7V	14	17	6	29%	74.1	70.8%	0.97	7.9
kashl1d	16	15	2	19%	58.5	62.5%	0.96	8.5

Virtus.pro

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
b1st	21	14	2	52%	86.3	70.8%	1.31	—
tO0RO	15	15	3	80%	66.1	66.7%	0.98	—
mir	15	20	10	40%	79.0	66.7%	0.94	—
F0R3VER	15	17	2	40%	68.2	50.0%	0.82	—
AquaRS	12	21	4	33%	61.3	58.3%	0.67	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = K27 · Magenta = Virtus.pro. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

b1st xeedo X5G7V fame kashl1d tO0RO qw1nk1 mir F0R3VER AquaRS