100 Thieves vs Leo — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395203

HLTV

T2 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-18 FINAL

100 Thieves

WINNER

2 : 1

SERIES COMPLETE

Leo

CHALLENGER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✓ CORRECT CALL

100 Thieves 58% Leo 42%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.212

PHANTOM +0.099

PHANTOM confidence -0.054

SHADOW BET 4.3u @ 1.755 → +3.2u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 100 Thieves 54%

✓

PHANTOM v2 100 Thieves 51%

✓

TITAN v2 100 Thieves 58%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

58%

100 Thieves

MODEL ODDS

0.58

BET ODDS

1.755

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

inferno 61% 100 Thieves

nuke 62% 100 Thieves

overpass 55% 100 Thieves

dust2 54% 100 Thieves

ancient 53% 100 Thieves

anubis 45% 100 Thieves

mirage 53% 100 Thieves

vertigo 50% WR (5/10)

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

nuke 5 – 13 Leo took the map.

ancient 16 – 12 100 Thieves took the map.

dust2 13 – 10 100 Thieves took the map.

Side

100 Thieves WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP poiii RIFLER	52	52	15	58%	81.0	71.8%	1.11	8.1
dev1ce	50	50	17	30%	81.7	60.6%	1.02	—
sirah RIFLER	43	48	9	53%	68.9	63.4%	0.92	8.1
Ag1l	39	50	9	62%	65.4	59.2%	0.82	—
rain ENTRY	34	50	16	71%	60.9	66.2%	0.80	7.7

Leo

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP rendysky AWP	53	38	14	32%	80.9	74.7%	1.25	6.1
leen	55	42	11	56%	80.0	73.2%	1.22	—
OneUn1que RIFLER	56	45	22	30%	89.6	67.6%	1.22	6.2
kL1o RIFLER	43	43	20	42%	76.7	73.2%	1.07	5.8
amster RIFLER	35	48	20	40%	71.3	69.0%	0.89	5.2

100 Thieves

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Ag1l	10	15	1	50%	61.7	55.6%	0.71	—
poiii	9	15	0	78%	55.9	50.0%	0.59	8.1
dev1ce	7	16	4	43%	58.7	44.4%	0.46	—
sirah	6	14	0	67%	46.3	50.0%	0.45	8.1
rain	4	15	5	75%	37.6	61.1%	0.40	7.7

Leo WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
rendysky	25	3	3	32%	142.9	100.0%	2.38	6.1
OneUn1que	18	9	8	33%	107.2	83.3%	1.66	6.2
kL1o	11	10	5	45%	77.6	83.3%	1.18	5.8
amster	11	11	4	27%	87.5	77.8%	1.13	5.2
leen	8	7	6	25%	54.3	83.3%	1.05	—

100 Thieves WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
dev1ce	32	20	8	28%	109.2	73.3%	1.54	—
poiii	27	20	10	48%	95.9	83.3%	1.43	8.1
rain	21	19	6	62%	79.9	73.3%	1.14	7.7
sirah	21	20	7	52%	80.7	70.0%	1.10	8.1
Ag1l	12	21	6	58%	55.2	60.0%	0.67	—

Leo

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
leen	26	22	4	65%	89.4	73.3%	1.26	—
kL1o	19	21	8	37%	81.6	63.3%	0.99	5.8
OneUn1que	21	21	5	29%	74.3	50.0%	0.91	6.2
amster	14	22	10	36%	64.6	63.3%	0.78	5.2
rendysky	15	22	4	20%	55.3	60.0%	0.73	6.1

100 Thieves WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
poiii	16	17	5	63%	81.1	73.9%	1.09	8.1
Ag1l	17	14	2	71%	81.6	60.9%	1.09	—
sirah	16	14	2	50%	71.0	65.2%	1.05	8.1
dev1ce	11	14	5	27%	63.6	56.5%	0.79	—
rain	9	16	5	89%	54.4	60.9%	0.67	7.7

Leo

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
leen	21	13	1	57%	87.8	65.2%	1.31	—
OneUn1que	17	15	9	29%	95.6	78.3%	1.27	6.2
kL1o	13	12	7	46%	69.7	78.3%	1.10	5.8
rendysky	13	13	7	46%	65.7	73.9%	1.03	6.1
amster	10	15	6	60%	67.3	69.6%	0.84	5.2

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = 100 Thieves · Magenta = Leo. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

rendysky leen OneUn1que poiii kL1o dev1ce sirah amster Ag1l rain